NBA Bargains 1/13/17
Happy Friday! Let us look at the healthy nine-game slate for today and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am going to keep these under the $5,000 line for FanDuel (FD) and/or DraftKings (DK) and $9,000 on Fantasy Draft (FDRA). Let’s go!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Cory Joseph – TOR vs. BKN – $3,700 (FD), $3,400 (DK), $6,700 (FDRA) – Tough night to find value at point guard. Most are going to be low ceiling plays due to minutes allocation. The Raptors are a 16 point favorites tonight at home against the defense-optional Nets, who got rolled by the Pelicans last night. Joseph was already going to play 24 minutes, but fourth quarter run could take that to 30 and with 19-20% raw usage. That would equal strong value.
Darren Collison – SAC vs. CLE – $4,400 (FD), $4,300 (DK), $8,400 (FDRA) – Maybe the biggest upside among value play point guards tonight, Collison has averaged 31 minutes, 20.5% raw usage and 26 DK PPG over the past five games. He gets Cleveland, who struggled in Portland, and the game total is 211.
Dion Waiters – MIA at MIL – $4,900 (FD), $4,400 (FD), $8,700 (FDRA) – Waiters is back to where he left off before the groin injury took him out for a few weeks. That would be a 23-25% raw usage, high volume shooting (17 shots against GSW) and mid 30s minutes playing time. Milwaukee is bottom ten in defense over the last 10 games, meaning there could be a 20 shot game here for Waiters.
Rodney Hood – UTA vs. DET – $4,400 (FD), $4,200 (DK), $8,700 (FDRA) – After struggling coming back from illness and injury, Hood has bounced back the last two games, with 33.2 minutes, 23.2% raw usage and 24.5 DK points per game. There is likely no Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who left after one minutes Thursday night, so Stanley Johnson, who is slightly worse than KCP on a team that is bottom five in defense over the last ten games, must stop Hood.
Aaron Gordon – ORL at POR – $4,900 (FD) – He is only a FanDuel play today as they are the only site to continue to price Gordon as a reserve. If Ibaka is out, then lock Gordon in, even against Aminu, but if Ibaka plays, pivot off of Aaron. In relief of Ibaka, Gordon saw 39 minutes and 23% raw usage against the Clippers.
Maurice Harkless – POR vs. ORL – $4,700 (FD), $4,400 (DK), $8,700 (FDRA) – Revenge game for Harkless, but for the reals, he should get 30 minutes here in an uptempo game (214.5 total, POR – 7.5), and neutral matchup for Mo.
Anthony Tolliver – SAC vs. CLE – $3,900 (FD), $3,600 (DK), $7,100 (FDRA) – Tolliver has been starting at the four and playing mid 30 minutes with 17% raw usage and 28 DK PPG over the past two games. The matchup against the Cavs is a slight positive for Tolliver as well.
Derrick Favors – UTA vs. DET – $4,700 (FD), $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FDRA) – Few have burned more bridges over the past two weeks than Favors, who is still surprisingly still below 5K on the main sites. The matchup against the wounded Pistons, in Salt Lake City, is a strong positive, evidenced by their 10 point favorite status. Favors could get to 30 fantasy points in this one, but is a best play on FanDuel, where the tourney threshold for value is around 28 FD points, rather than the 33 DK points he’d have to get to there.
Tristan Thompson – CLE at SAC – $5,000 (FD), $4,700 (DK), $9,200 (FDRA) – Last season in Sacramento, Thompson played 37 minutes and scored nearly a fantasy point per minute, which would be tourney value. However, his ceiling, because of his complete lack of scoring, is low, but the floor is solid in this matchup against the Kings.
Cody Zeller – CHA at PHI – $4,900 (FD), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDRA) – Zeller should be back tonight and playing the Sixers, who have been a very positive matchup for opposing centers, so long as Zeller can avoid fouling Joel Embiid. Assuming he stays on the court, Zeller and his 18-19 percent raw usage, should grab enough boards and score to make solid value here tonight in a pace up game with a 210 total.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.