NBA Bargains 11/23/2016
It is Wednesday and we have a huge 13-game NBA slate tonight with some intriguing bargain plays that can open up some salary relief in order to fit in some of the high-end expensive players in good spots. Let’s jump right into it and go over some of tonight’s bargains.
Ricky Rubio – In his last game, Rubio was two boards, one assists, and three points away from a triple-double. His ability to contribute to multiple categories, provides that type of upside anytime he is on the court and he comes at an affordable price across the industry. Tonight he faces the Pelicans who have allowed +1.71 points above expectations to point guards. New Orleans also plays paced up which should create some extra touch opportunities for Rubio.
Jose Calderon – Calderon got the start last night in place of the injured D’Angelo Russell and played 23 minutes. He scored 12 points, dished out four assists, grabbed six boards, had two steals, and shot 4-of-5 from beyond the arc. He remains at minimum price on most sites and should be in for another start against the Warriors who play up-tempo basketball which should create plenty of touch opportunities for Calderon. Although this is likely going to be a blowout, it is tough to shy away from a starting point guard at min salary.
Nik Stauskas – Prior to the last game where he played 21 minutes, Stauskas played at least 24 minutes in six consecutive games and scored double-digit points in each of those games. He has been shooting the ball well over the last two weeks. Tonight he faces Memphis who has allowed +1.52 points above expectations to opposing shooting guards. He is near minimum price across the industry and could free up some salary for one of the top dollar plays in this huge slate.
Evan Fournier – Fournier gets a good matchup against the Suns who are in the top eight as far as fantasy points per game allowed to opposing shooting guards. Phoenix also leads the league in game pace, so this should be an up-tempo game. In addition, they have allowed +5.62 points above expectations to opposing two guards. Fournier is third in Orlando with a 23.2 percent usage rate and has attempted at least 10 shots in eight straight games. He is affordable across the industry and has displayed his 30+ fantasy point upside numerous times this season. Considering the matchup and his role in this offense, this is a favorable situation for him this evening.
Matt Barnes – Barnes is a volatile play as he can have 15 fantasy points at the half or have zero in the third quarter. That being said, he has played at least 27 minutes in six of his last seven games and 30 or more minutes in back-to-back games, while averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game during that span (DK points). His opponent, the Thunder, play at the fourth highest pace, which should provide Barnes with some extra opportunities. He is a good source of blocks, boards and threes. In the last two games, he has also attempted 10 shots per game.
Marcus Smart – Smart is averaging 32.3 minutes per game and despite having a subpar usage rate of 18.2 percent, he contributes in several categories, increasing his floor. Tonight he faces the Nets who are in the top five as far as fantasy points per game allowed to small forwards. Smart has topped 20 fantasy points in three of the last five games and has two 30+ fantasy point games in his last seven. This matchup has a 216 projected over/under and the Celtics have a healthy implied team total of 112 points. He is reasonably priced across the industry in a matchup that favors him.
Larry Nance Jr. – Nance Jr. has played 26+ minutes in back-to-back games and that has translated to 20+ fantasy points in each of those games. With Julius Randle uncertain for tonight’s game, Nance Jr. could get some more run. Both of these teams are in the top five as far as game pace is concerned, so this should be an up-tempo game with plenty of touch opportunities.
Frank Kaminsky – Kaminsky is dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable for tonight’s game, so it is something worth monitoring prior to lock, however, if he gives it a go, he is in play. He has topped 23 fantasy points in four consecutive games, including two 30+ fantasy outings, and is averaging 25.8 minutes, 15.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, three assists, and 1.5 steals per game during that span. He has also drained nine three pointers in that time frame. He is less than $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and could provide a nice return on investment.
Alan Williams – Tyson Chandler will miss yet another game, putting Williams in play once again. Williams has done a nice job grabbing rebounds, averaging 11.3 rebounds per game in his last three. He is also blocking shots and getting steals. Tonight’s matchup against the Magic is one that favors him as they have allowed +2.25 points above expectations to opposing centers. They are yielding 45.6 rebounds per game which is 10th most in the league. Williams is not going to do much offensively, but his ability to contribute in other categories give him a nice ceiling at a low price.
Bismack Biyombo – Despite playing 23 and 22 minutes, Biyombo has a double-double in two consecutive games and has now topped 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Tonight the Magic face off against the Suns who lead the league in shot attempts per game which could create some extra rebounding opportunities. Although his recent offensive productivity is likely unsustainable, his contributions in boards and blocks provides a nice floor for an affordable player.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.