NBA Bargains 11/12/16
Welcome to the weekend! To celebrate, let us look at the tasty, full-bodied 11-game main slate tonight and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings.
Ish Smith – DET at DEN – ($5,400 – FanDuel, $5,100 – DraftKings) – Going into Denver on the back end of back to backs is not easy, but the matchup looks great for a guy like Ish, who will get a boost in pace with the Nuggets being top five in pace and Smith is 10th in Assist Ration and carries 21% raw usage into this matchup.
Patty Mills – SAS at HOU – ($4,200 – FanDuel) – The high paced seven-seconds-or-less Mike D’Antoni offense has developed in Houston….yet. The total lack of defense has, however, and Mills should see extended run on the back end of a back to back, as Tony Parker played, albeit only 21 minutes, at home last night.
E’Twaun Moore – NO vs. LAL – ($4,300 – DraftKings) – As long as Moore remains a starter, he is too inexpensive here on DK. Moore has averaged 25 DK points per game and 21% usage over the past three games. This game against the Lakers finds both teams in the top ten in pace and has the third highest game total of the night.
Eric Gordon – HOU vs. SAS – ($4,600 – DraftKings, $5,000 – FanDuel) – Gordon’s move to the bench upset him, but his usage rose by 2-3% and he stands to benefit from not seeing the first team Spurs defense tonight. The total is a healthy 206.5 and the spread merely a single point.
C.J. Miles – IND vs. BOS – ($4,400 – FanDuel) – Miles moved to the starting lineup in order to get Monta Ellis some along time with the ball in the second unit, but Miles still eeked out 30 minutes and 22 DK points. In this game, we see both teams in the bottom three in defense to start the season, and a game total of 216, so Miles will have some contribution and is at a nice price on FanDuel.
Bojan Bogdanovic – BKN at PHX – ($4,100 – FanDuel, $4,200 – DraftKings) – Not a ton to like but Bojan can get hot, has nearly 12 shots per game over the past three games and a very high total in Phoenix tonight.
Jon Leuer – DET at DEN – ($4,400 – FanDuel, $4,500 -DraftKings) – Leuer has been coming off the bench, but getting between 25-29 minutes per game in the process. He scored 27-28 fantasy points the last time out against Denver a week ago and is coming off a dud game, not surprisingly, against the Spurs, lowering public expectation.
Richaud Holmes – PHI at ATL – ($3,700 – FanDuel, $3,800 – DraftKings) – Holmes is getting the other half of the center split, whenever Jahlil Okafor or Joel Embiid sits. Holmes had over 20% raw usage last night and over 25 fantasy points and will not have to see a lot of Hawks center Dwight Howard, rather, likely Mike Muscala defense, which is not as daunting. The game spread has the Hawks a 14.5 favorite, meaning it could blow out, leaving Holmes with even more playing time.
Jusuf Nurkic – DEN vs. DET – ($5,500 -FanDuel, $5,700 – DraftKings) – Nurkic scored well over a fantasy point per minute the last time these two teams got together about a week ago, and with Andre Drummond definitely playing, it stands to reason that Nurkic will see at least 25 minutes tonight, putting a 30+ fantasy night in play here.
Joakim Noah – NYK at TOR – ($4,300 – FanDuel) – He gets so many peripherals that he constantly lands in my top ten fantasy points per 25 minutes chart (20 fantasy points on peripherals alone this season) when subtracting out raw scoring. He is not going to play more than those 25 minutes, but against Jonas Valanciunas he could get up to that number, and that would be a good value at 4.3K on FanDuel.
Good luck and good winning tonight! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.