NBA Bargains 11/02/2016
It is Wednesday and we have a healthy 10-game NBA slate tonight with some intriguing bargain plays that can open up some salary relief in order to fit in some of the high-end expensive players in good spots. Let’s jump right into it and go over some of tonight’s bargains.
Sergio Rodriguez – Despite averaging 30.6 minutes and over 28 fantasy points per game, Rodriguez remains at a very affordable price tag. He owns a 21 percent usage rate and accounts for 59.5 percent of the teams assists, as well as, 20.9 percent of the teams points scored. The Sixers are currently playing at the 11th highest pace in the league, which creates more touches and opportunities for Rodriguez. He has exceeded value in every game this season and at his low price across the industry has shot to continue that streak tonight.
Marcus Smart – Smart is expected to return to action this evening after missing the first three games of the season with a sprained ankle. It is uncertain how much run he will get in his first game, but assuming there are no minute restrictions or limitations for Smart, he is an intriguing option at his price tag. Last season coming off the bench, he saw a 17.2 usage rate and despite being an inconsistent shooter, he was a good source of three-pointers and steals, and also contributes in assists and boards. There is definitely volatility when rostering Smart, but then again, there is also upside. We have seen his 30 point upside before. In two games against the Bulls last season, he averaged over 20 DraftKings points. This contest has a healthy projected total of 210 points and Boston has an implied team total of 106.75.
Jamal Crawford – Crawford continues to play solid minutes off the bench, averaging 24.3 minutes per game. He also has a respectable usage rate of 23.9 percent. Tonight’s game against the Thunder should be up-tempo as Oklahoma City current leads the league in game pace, which should create some extra opportunities for Crawford. He is averaging 10.3 shot attempts, 2.3 steals, and 13.7 points per game. He has shot just 1-9 from beyond the arc, but eventually will start sinking some of those in. At his low price and with the potential game flow in this contest, Crawford could provide some decent returns.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – This is strictly a tournament play as Caldwell-Pope has a very low floor, but he has been shooting the ball well in the last two games and continues to play a heavy amount of minutes (averaging 32.3 minutes per game). He has scored 21 and 19 points in each of the last two games and has drained six from beyond the arc, as well as, adding nine rebounds and three steals. In addition, he has attempted over 10 shots in the last two contests. Tonight’s matchup against the Nets is one that favors him as Brooklyn plays paced up. There is always risk when rostering Caldwell-Pope, but he does offer 7X upside which is ideal for tournaments.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – The last two outings for Kidd-Gilchrist have been subpar, but the matchups have not been ideal either, however, that is not the case tonight as he faces the Sixers. Philadelphia has allowed +7.21 points above expectations to opposing small forwards. Kidd-Gilchrist is averaging 29.2 minutes per game and although his usage rate is just 16.8 percent, he is a good rebounder and also contributes in steals and blocks. He displayed his ability to go off for over 40 fantasy points in the season opener and is in a good spot to have another big outing tonight.
Jae Crowder – Crowder a little more expensive than the price range we usually target for this article, but considering his price he offers a good amount of value. Crowder is not a high usage player, but his ability to rebound, steal, block, and shoot the three ball voids the lack of usage. Al Horford is out for tonight’s game, so this could provide Crowder with a boost in usage and also provide some more rebounding opportunities. Crowder has smashed value in two of his three games this season. Being that this is a position that is usually unappealing, he offers both upside and some stability at a reasonable price, making him an intriguing option.
Marvin Williams – Williams’ price has increase by a couple hundred since the start of the season, but he remains at a reasonable price and still offers value. He is averaging 30.5 minutes, 9.7 points, and eight rebounds per game. He grabbed double-digit points in each of the first two games and has a block in each game thus far, so despite his low usage rate he contributes in other categories. The matchup is also one that favors Williams as the Sixers have allowed +3.96 points above expectations to opposing power forwards.
Dario Saric – Saric played 31 minutes last night and attempted 15 shots, scoring 21 points and shooting 3 of 4 from beyond the arc. With the Sixers on their second game of a back-to-back and the fact that they are thin at the front court, Saric could see a lot of run once again this evening. Joel Embiid will not play tonight and Nerlens Noel remains out. Saric has a usage rate of 22.6 percent and remains below $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Mason Plumlee – Plumlee continues to be criminally underpriced across the industry and until his price goes up, it will be difficult not to roster him, considering the upside he offers. He is below $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. For a big man, he has the ability to stuff the stat sheet as we saw against the Clippers a couple of games back. Plumlee has four or more assists in three of the first four games; he can grab boards, score, provides steals, and has the ability to block shots. Despite being on the second game of back-to-back, he should be well rested as he played just 22 minutes against the Warriors last night. At his low price, he could provide you with some serious returns in a plus matchup.
Tyler Zeller – Al Horford has been ruled out of tonight’s contest due to an illness, so Zeller should pick up some extra minutes tonight and he is near minimum price on just about every site. He is averaging 1.1 fantasy points per minute and could see anywhere between 20-24 minutes with potential for some more. The Bulls are yielding 10.7 rebounds per game to opposing centers, so despite the lack of offensive upside, he could have a good evening under the glass. Keep an eye on any news regarding potential minutes for Zeller.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.