NBA Bargains –1/10/17
Happy Tuesday! Let us look at the healthy nine-game slate for today and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am going to keep these under the $5,000 line for FanDuel (FD) and/or DraftKings (DK) and $9,000 on Fantasy Draft (FDRA). Let’s go!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Jerian Grant and Michael Carter-Williams – CHI at WAS – Grant is ($3,100 – DK, $3,600 – FD, $6,000 – FDRA) and stands to get a bump in minutes because both Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade are out tonight. MCW is ($4,800 – FD, $4,800 – DK, $9,400 – FDRA) so he is not as good of a deal. Most will assume both will play as PG/SG, but I would not be shocked to see the Bulls do a lot of mix/match with Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic and Denzel Valentine, so going with Grant, who has equally mediocre fantasy point per minute numbers as MCW, may be a better play due to similar minutes as MCW but a lower price point.
Tony Parker – SA vs. MIL – $4,700 (FD), $4,700 (DK), $9,200 (FDRA) – Over the last five games, Tony Parker has averaged only 25 minutes per game, BUT, he has also posted a robust 27% raw usage rate over that span, indicating that he is both healthy and ready to assert himself in this offense, a must for the Spurs to continue their dominance over the course of the entire season.
Jeremy Lamb – CHA at HOU – $4,000 (FD), $5,100 (DK), $10,100 (FDRA) – Too low priced on FanDuel, too high priced on Fantasy Draft and reasonably priced on DK, Lamb played 28+ minutes in relief of Nicolas Batum (doubtful tonight) and delivered well, getting eight rebounds in addition to his scoring to put up a fantasy point per minute. Against Houston and a slate-high 225.5 game total, Lamb is certainly a core value on FD.
Marco Belinelli – CHA at HOU – $4,000 (FD), $3,800 (DK), $7,400 (FDRA) – On The Final Countdown last game for the Hornets, we made mention that Bells was a tremendous pivot off of Lamb, because it was likely that he would play similar minutes as Lamb. Such as it was, it was close, but Belinelli couldn’t hit his shots and did not have a strong game. It is even more so that Bells is in play tonight as a fabulous leverage/pivot play here since his price is as low and he will likely play as many minutes once again as Lamb.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – CHA at HOU – $4,800 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRA) – FanDuel play here, as I can much more likely see 29 FD points in this spot, likely without Batum and Cody Zeller, than a 35 DK point night. 30 minutes and extra possessions in this game means more rebounding chances, especially with the Hornets probably starting Roy Hibbert for Zeller.
Doug McDermott – CHI at WAS – $4,000 (FD), $4,400 (DK), $8,700 (FDRA) – If you skipped the Bulls altogether as a play on the three-game slate Monday, congrats, you probably won all the monies! Tonight, however, against the Wizards, the Bulls value plays are back in play. McDermott will likely start and get 30+ minutes with Wade/Butler out and prior to last night’s stinker, had averaged 12 shots a game over the previous four. A 17 shot game, such as the OT game against Toronto on 1/7, seems like a reasonable ceiling here and a great value on FD and DK.
Nikola Mirotic – CHI at WAS – $4,500 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,700 (FDRA) – Same as McDermott, Mirotic is going to see a large rise in his usage and minutes tonight with low usage players like MCW, Grant and maybe even Rondo playing for Wade/Butler. Bring on the shooting wings! Mirotic has 40 fantasy point upside and gets a Wizards SF/PF defense that has been shaky all season.
Kelly Olynyk – BOS at TOR – $3,500 (DK), $3,700 (FD – Center), $7,000 (FDRA) – Olynyk played well in the last matchup against Toronto, scoring a fantasy point per minutes during his low 20s minutes run in that one. He is listed here instead of Patrick Patterson or Marvin Williams due to the upside provided by his 21% raw usage rate here.
Christian Felicio – CHI at WAS – $3,500 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRA) – Last chance to get him at minimum salary. Our own Ricky Sanders has published some great stats on Felicio on Twitter and I am now a believer after rostering him instead of Robin Lopez last night, to the tune of a 24 minute, 33.25 DK point night against the Thunder. Gortat has not been good at defending his colleagues at the center position, so I will be sneaking Felicio back in there for a 20-24-minute play at bare min salary that can get me 25 fantasy points in this spot.
Zaza Pachulia – GSW vs. MIA – $4,000 (FD), $3,500 (DK), $6,900 (FDRA) – I am on board while Zaza is near min salary whenever the Warriors are going up against another 30-35 minute big man that requires defending, as Hassan Whiteside does. The last two games, against the Grizzlies (Marc Gasol) and Sacramento (Cousins, Koufos), Pachulia has played 30 and 27 minutes and scored double digit points. Over his last four games, Zaza has posted 22.75, 25.75, 18 and 27.25 points.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.