NBA Bargains 10/30/16
It’s NFL Sunday, but basketball isn’t going anywhere. We have ourselves a nice six-game slate with what should be a few high scoring affairs, and there are some surprisingly big contests across the industry. Let’s take a look at some value options that’ll help us free up some cap space to make the perfect lineup.
Ish Smith – Don’t expect this seventh-year journeyman to light up the scoreboard — it’s just not his thing. What is his thing, however, is driving to the basket and opening up easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. Smith remains affordable across the board in an exploitable matchup with what’s expected to be sub-par Milwaukee defense. With approximately 30 minutes per game, Smith shouldn’t have much trouble paying off his price tag. He provides a high floor and decent upside, especially considering Smith has attempted 23 field goal attempts over his first two starts with Detroit.
J.J. Barea – Facing an awful backcourt defense in Houston, Barea should continue to impress. With Devin Harris sidelined and the young Seth Curry likely limited to 20 minutes a game, Barea will see another ~30 minutes with Carlisle running a ton of three-guard sets. This contest owns the second highest total on the night (215 O/U) and Barea is still cheap enough to provide value in a fast-paced affair.
Matthew Dellavedova – Giannis Antetokounmpo is Milwaukee’s primary ball handler when on the court, but Dellavedova showed on Saturday that he’ll have a role as a facilitator. Delly finished with nine assists, while racking up 10 field goal attempts in consecutive contests. He’s playing big minutes and owns a respectable 28 percent assist rate through his first two starts, so as long as this continues he’ll have value at a dirt cheap cost. Furthermore, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will likely try to guard Antetokounmpo, leaving the ill-equipped Ish Smith for Jason Kidd to hide on Delly.
Wade Baldwin IV – You generally won’t find a ton of value on short slates, as evidenced by Wade Baldwin IV being listed. He’s certainly a volatile play, but the point guard position gives us most room for upside due to elevated touches and assist opportunities. Through two games Baldwin is third in team touches behind only Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, while owning the second highest time of possession. As we’ve seen with Terry Rozier, you don’t need to do much in order to pay off a dirt cheap price tag when you’re directing the second offensive unit. 20-plus fantasy points is easily attainable if Baldwin continues to see minutes in the mid-twenties.
Eric Gordon – I’ll continue to run with Gordon until his salary inflates. He’s perfect for this Houston offense, and Harden will continue to feed him around the perimeter. Gordon is handling point guard duties when Harden is off the court, and has now racked up 37 points and 24 field goal attempts across his first two games. The veteran point guard just posted 32.5 DraftKings Points against Dallas the other night, and a similar performance is more than just a possibility.
Dion Waiters – I’m never a fan of playing value guards against the Spurs, but with Danny Green sidelined the matchup gets easier. Waiters has 34 minutes in each of his first two appearances with Miami, while hoisting up a whopping 29 field goal attempts in the process. Based on volume alone, Waiters should be considered. Factor in his dirt cheap price tag across the board and you won’t need much from him in order to get value. He’ll remain in play until Josh Richardson returns.
Brandon Knight – Knight is nothing more than a dart throw GPP play who should be virtually unowned on Sunday. He’ll be playing in the highest scoring contest on the night (224.5 O/U), and despite coming off the bench is logging big minutes with the first and second unit. Knight may actually have more upside off the bench as he’ll be the go-to scorer and ball-handler with Bledsoe and Booker getting some rest. Knight’s 27 percent usage rate through two games would be the highest of his career if it continues.
Harrison Barnes – Barnes will continue to see huge volume now that he’s out of Golden State. Through his first two games, the max-contract small forward is sporting a 25 percent usage rate, which is nearly 10 percent higher than his career average. He’ll be a primary scorer in Dallas even when Dirk Nowitzki is on the court, and remains only $5,400 on FanDuel. We’ll want plenty of exposure to this game and Barnes is a perfect way to find it.
T.J. Warren – Warren is a lethal scorer when given the opportunity, and although he’ll be a volatile option at times, the third-year wing has too much upside to ignore. This game owns a Goliath 224.5 over-under, and although the Suns are big dogs at home, Warren should continue to earn plenty of minutes until P.J. Tucker is back to full health. When you’re shooting as much as Warren is (15 FGA/36), there should be no reason to ignore him at an affordable cost.
JaMychal Green – Green fouled out on Saturday night, but at least managed to eclipse the 20 fantasy point mark before hitting the showers. An impressive athlete and feisty defender, Green will rarely leave you without serviceable fantasy totals. He should see another 30 minutes as the Grizzlies’ starting power forward, and this matchup with Washington is far from imposing. Green’s salary will rise soon, but until it does we should continue to target him in all formats.
Jon Leuer – Leuer is surprisingly one of the better fantasy point per minute producers in the game, which immediately puts him in play on Sunday. He’s seeing mid-20 minutes off the bench behind Andre Drummond and Tobias Harris, and Milwaukee’s frontcourt defense is putrid to say the least. Leuer’s $3,400 price tag on DraftKings makes him one of the best all-out punts on this slate. He’s averaging eight points and nine rebounds per game over his first two games, and a low-end double-double is a definite possibility this evening.
Steven Adams – Oklahoma’s starting center has logged huge minutes over his first two games, and although the fantasy production has left much to be desired, there’s plenty of room for improvement. The Lakers accommodate fantasy scoring from all positions, with center being no exception. The Thunder own the second highest implied total on this slate (110.5), and Adams should reach value by default. All he’ll need to do is hang around the rim for easy rebounds, putbacks and slams from Westbrook handoffs. At $4,700 on FanDuel, he’s the best value center available.
Greg Monroe – Facing his old team at the Palace of Auburn Hills, Greg Monroe could absolutely eat off the bench. He isn’t a punt, but his price tag definitely puts him in value territory at the center position. Sure, Andre Drummond is an all-world rebounder, but his defense is atrocious on so many levels. I’m expecting Monroe to see close to 30 minutes in this game against a large Detroit frontcourt. You could do a whole lot worse than Monroe in a revenge game scenario.