MLB Tournament Thoughts by ShipMyMoney – 5/26/17
Greetings Gamers! We wanted to give you a free sneak peek at some of our premium baseball content and with our special Headhunter promotion, who better to get some information from than the target himself?!?!
Tonight we are offering a special Friday FanVice Headhunter promotion in conjunction with FantasyDraft. Any FanVice subscriber who enters the $25,000 HomeRun tonight gets the added incentive of $5 on FantasyDraft if their top entry beats FanVice contributor Adam “shipmymoney” Scherer’s top entry.
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Now let’s get down to business with some insight from Adam!
Tonight on FantasyDraft, we have a marquee $25,000 Home Run with a reasonable $25 entry fee and a 30 entry limit so we will not see the field overrun by anyone one player with deep pockets. There are 15 games on the slate with FantasyDraft, including the second game of the Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox doubleheader.
Below are some of the players I am targeting for my tournament lineups.
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals, $24,800 — Scherzer has been outstanding once again for the Nationals this season, with a 32.2 percent strikeout percentage and 15.1 percent swinging strike percentage. Tonight, he gets an excellent matchup with the San Diego Padres. San Diego has the second highest strikeout percentage in the major leagues against right-handed pitching at 23.6 percent and they are below average in terms of production, with a .308 wOBA and 90 wRC+. Scherzer can be home run prone to lefties but, aside from Ryan Schimpf, there is not much left-handed power to worry about in the Padres’ lineup. Scherzer has been especially impressive against righties this season, striking out 42.6 percent of right-handed hitters that he has faced (23.4 percent of lefties). He will be a popular option, but he is the top pitching option on this slate if you can find a way to afford him.
Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers, $18,400 — Wood appears to have really turned a corner this season as he has pitched to a 2.38 xFIP with 29.9 percent strikeout percentage and 12.1 percent swinging strike rate for the Dodgers. The Cubs are a dangerous offense, with a .350 wOBA and 114 wRC+ against lefties this season, but they strikeout over 21 percent of the time against lefties and Wood has been dominant against hitters from both sides of the plate, with a .214 wOBA allowed to righties and a .243 wOBA allowed to lefties. The primary concern for Wood is that he is on a short leash and has not been allowed to throw 100 pitches in a game yet this season, but he has shown that he can be effective despite those constraints.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox, $17,100 — Rodriguez has been one of the top strikeout pitchers in all of baseball since his return from a demotion last season. So far this season, he has struck out 27.8 percent of hitters with a swinging strike percentage of 12.9 percent. The Mariners have only struck out 18.3 percent of the time against lefties, but they also have not hit them well with just a .275 wOBA and 74 wRC+ so far this season. Rodriguez’s price is low enough that we can roster him in tournaments and look for his electric stuff to get more strikeouts than usual from the Mariners’ bats.
Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks, $12,600 — Godley has been impressive so far this season, with a 13.8 percent swinging strike percentage that suggests his 20.2 percent strikeout percentage should increase. Godley has an elite curveball that makes opposing hitters look foolish and generates one of the highest whiff per swing rates in the league. He disappointed a lot of people in his last start against the Padres, but he has another high upside matchup tonight against the Brewers. Milwaukee has struck out 23.4 percent of the time against right-handed pitching this season, third highest in the majors, and is likely to be without star hitter Ryan Braun, who left last night’s game with an injury.
Yonder Alonso, Oakland Athletics, $7,600 — Alonso is questionable to play tonight after leaving a game early on Wednesday because he was hit by a pitch on the wrist. Reports seem to indicate that he will be good to go tonight and, if he is, he is in a nice spot against Masahiro Tanaka in Yankees Stadium. Tanaka’s split-fingered fastball, normally his best pitch, has been extremely ineffective this season and it has led to him choosing to throw it less in recent starts. Whether it is ineffective or he is just not throwing it, the lack of a good splitter makes Tanaka a much worse pitcher, as evidenced by the fact that he is allowing over 2 home runs per nine innings to hitters from both sides of the plate this season. Look for Alonso and his re-invented home run swing to take advantage of the short porch in right field tonight.
Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals, $9,000 — Carpenter gets a huge ballpark boost going from Busch Stadium to Coors Field. He will be facing Antonio Senzatela, who has gotten surprisingly good results this season. Still, Senzatela does not strike hitters out and has been worse against lefties than righties. Carpenter leads the Cardinals with a .415 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season and should be able to take advantage of the positive park shift.
Michael Conforto, New York Mets, $9,900 — Conforto has destroyed right-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .454 xwOBA and he will face Chad Kuhl who, while good against righties, has struggled mightily against lefties in his young career. Since last season, Kuhl has allowed a .386 wOBA and 1.29 home runs per nine innings to opposing lefties. This season, he has allowed a .424 wOBA and 1.5 home runs per nine innings to hitters from the left side of the plate. Harper has enough power to hit the ball out of any stadium, so the negative park shift to Pittsburgh is not as important for him as it would be for some other hitters.
Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals, $10,400 — Like Conforto, Harper is facing a pitcher who is very good at getting out righties and struggles against lefties. Luis Perdomo has allowed 39.5 percent hard contact and 1.93 home runs per nine innings to opposing lefties since the start of last season, along with a .383 wOBA against. Conforto has posted a .413 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season and a 65.5 percent hard contact rate over the last 14 days.
Best of luck in taking second place tonight! ~ShipMyMoney