MLB Tournament Thoughts by ShipMyMoney aka Adam Scherer – 5/11/2018 Greetings Gamers! We wanted to give you a free sneak peek at some of our premium baseball content to for tonight’s $10,000 Home Run on FantasyDraft with a manageable$27 entry fee and a 12-entry limit, so we will not see the field overrun by anyone one player with a big bankroll.
- 30 days of FanVice premium content (current FanVice subscribers will have their expiration date extended by 30 days).
- A deposit bonus from FantasyDraft
- Additionally, you will receive a 10% “rakeback” from FantasyDraft on your “site fees” in the form of FantasyDraft Cash which can be used immediately to enter contests.
Now let’s get down to business with some insight from ShipMyMoney!
Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels, $16,900
Skaggs has struck out 24.4 percent of hitters that he has faced this season with a 10.5 percent swinging strike rate. He has struck out 23.3 percent of right-handed hitters. Minnesota ranks 15th with a 22.7 percent strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching this season. Skaggs is throwing his curveball 33.3 percent of the time this season and he has the 7th-most vertical movement on the pitch amongst 90 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 50 curveballs this season. While his 27 percent whiff per swing percentage ranks just 57th of those 90 pitchers, his swinging strike plus called strike percentage on the pitch is the 7th highest amongst starting pitchers who have thrown at least 100 curveballs this season. There is upside here for Skaggs at a reasonable price point.
Sonny Gray, New York Yankees, $12,800
Gray has struggled this season, striking out just 18.9 percent of hitters while pitching to a 4.91 xFIP. There is some reason for optimism, however, and he is very affordable. Gray has been much better when ahead in the count this season, allowing a .194 xwOBA with a 12.1 percent swinging strike percentage compared to a .509 xwOBA and 7.7 percent swinging strike percentage when behind in the count. In his first four starts of the season, Gray averaged a 47.1 percent first-pitch strike percentage (including 61.9 percent in his first start of the season).
In his three most recent starts, he has recorded first-pitch strike percentages of 58.3, 56.0 and 54.2 percent. It is also worth noting the difficulty of his schedule to start the season. He has faced a Toronto team that has a 118 wRC+ against right-handed pitching twice, the Red Sox and Twins who, along with being quality offenses, do not strike out easily, the Astros, the Indians and the Orioles. The only easy matchup there is Baltimore. Oakland has been slightly above average offensively against right-handed pitching this season, but they also rank 6th with a 24.4 percent strikeout percentage. There is plenty of upside for Gray tonight.
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians, $9,400
Ramirez has a nice matchup tonight against Jason Hammel, who is due for some regression against left-handed hitters. Hammel has allowed just 0.50 home runs per nine innings to lefties this season despite a 49.1 percent hard contact percentage and 45.6 percent fly ball rate. His home run per fly ball percentage against lefties is just 3.8 percent. Hammel has allowed a .455 xwOBA to lefties this season compared to a .304 actual wOBA. Ramirez has a .395 xwOBA and .319 ISO against right-handed pitching so far this season.
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers, $8,200
Bellinger will face Matt Harvey tonight in Harvey’s debut with the Reds. Harvey has been terrible this season, particular against left-handed hitters. His .420 xwOBA matches his .420 actual wOBA and he has allowed a .333 ISO. He has also struck out just 14.8 percent of left-handed hitters, which benefits Bellinger as he should be able to make contact. Bellinger is off to a relatively slow start this season with a .344 xwOBA and .198 ISO against right-handed pitching compared to his .359 xwOBA and .323 ISO last season. The drop in power numbers has lowered his price, however, which makes him an attractive tournament target.
Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners, $8,100
Matt Boyd has made improvements this season, particularly with regard to keeping the ball in the park against right-handed hitters. He has allowed 0.98 home runs per nine innings and limited righties to 27.1 percent hard contact while inducing 25.9 percent soft contact. Still, Cruz is inexpensive and has massive power upside. Cruz has a .390 wOBA and .288 ISO against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2016 season and he has a .492 xwOBA and .308 ISO against lefties so far this season.
Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners, $8,500
Haniger has been one of the most improved hitters in baseball so far this season and he, like Cruz, has too much upside to ignore at a reasonable price point against left-handed starter Matt Boyd and a poor Tigers bullpen behind him. Haniger has a .432 xwOBA and .297 ISO against lefties so far this season and has a .333 wOBA and .202 ISO against lefties since the start of 2016.
Best of luck in taking second place tonight! ~ ShipMyMoney