Starting Nine 9/19/17
The data displayed will be from the start of this 2017 season. I like displaying this information on one page so I can see which pitchers have the most strikeout opportunities on a given night. We know strikeouts are huge in MLB DFS and looking at this information as lineups come out help me pinpoint which pitchers have the best matchups. With this info in front of us, here are the pitchers I think are in the best spots tonight.
Chris Archer – This ‘Starting 9’ will be out of character for me but I’m being totally honest with the roster construction I’m using today. Without any must-have offense on the slate and no Coors or Chase, I don’t feel the need to pay down at pitching. Chris Archer is actually $7,900 on DraftKings which is a bit surprising and he’ll be at home where he’s been phenomenal throughout his career. I also think it’s a great strikeout matchup as some of these Cubs do strikeout at above-average rates. Guys like Happ, Contreras, Schwarber, and Baez all have strikeout rates closer to 30% or higher which bodes well for Archers ‘upside’ tonight. I wouldn’t say this is a price play, but he’s priced the cheapest he’s been all season and that’s really enticing. I love Archer in all game types tonight.
Max Scherzer – I love when a really good pitcher has a rough stretch because his price starts to come down and people start getting off him. Scherzer is amongst baseball’s best and I still consider him matchup proof. Yes, the Braves do limit upside to an extent, but I’m not going to get off Mad Max because of a couple bad starts in tough matchups. This is a matchup he just failed in but I’m going right back to him. The velocity is still intact and the breaking stuff still looks great. I expect Scherzer to bounce back in a huge way and this time with way less ownership. Again, I don’t think there’s anything to pay for when it comes to bats and paying up at both pitching spots seems fairly easy. I get that Atlanta doesn’t strikeout, but I’m trusting the 45% strikeout rate against righties and 26% against lefties.
Aaron Nola – Another top-tier option which is why I explained this ‘Starting 9’ would be a bit out of character for me. I love Nola’s price today sitting just below $9k on DraftKings where he has tons of upside. People will see the Dodgers on the other side and proceed with caution when I think Nola might have the upper hand. He’s great against both side of the plate and I expect that to be in full display tonight. Nola had his highest swinging-strike percentage of the season last game against Miami and seems to be firing on all cylinders. He’ll get a free-swinging Dodgers team that hasn’t looked like they did in the first half of the season. I also love that Nola is at home where he’s been much better this season. Some of these top options have been a little suspect recently and that makes me love them even more today.
Feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) with any questions regarding todays slate. I will confirm these plays and more on the Deeper Dive later today. I’ll also be in the premium slack chat answering questions leading up to lock. Till next time, party animals!