Starting Nine 9/13/17
The data displayed will be from the start of this 2017 season. I like displaying this information on one page so I can see which pitchers have the most strikeout opportunities on a given night. We know strikeouts are huge in MLB DFS and looking at this information as lineups come out help me pinpoint which pitchers have the best matchups. With this info in front of us, here are the pitchers I think are in the best spots tonight.
Marcus Stroman – Believe it or not, Stroman is $7,700 on DraftKings. Just three starts ago he was $9,500 and the start before that he was $11,500. Marcus Stroman is not a $7,700 pitcher, especially not after making one mistake last start. A few cheap hits and a mistake pitch against Castellanos were the only four runs he gave up last start and actually looked really sharp. He threw 60% first-pitch strikes and had a swinging strike rate of 11%. This matchup is just as good in my opinion when he has the off-speed stuff to get this Baltimore team to chase. Similar to Estrada, he has good off-speed stuff which is perfect against this team. I also like that he goes deep into games and the price tag gives him room to mess up a tad. I love Stroman in all game types tonight and makes the perfect pairing with any top-tier pitcher.
Max Scherzer – One of my favorite pitchers in baseball. With his struggles lately and his neck issue, I expect the field to be a little scared of what seems to be a tough matchup. The Braves rarely strikeout and do a great job a limiting a pitcher’s upside. With that being said, I consider Scherzer matchup proof and I’m not buying into any injury issues. He’s the type of pitcher who can get through any lineup and Atlanta is no exception. I don’t like getting that different at pitching, I just try making the best plays on the day and get contrarian with my bats. I love Scherzer tonight even with the below-average matchup.
Jon Lester – Lester gets the Triple-A Mets today. The same team that lefty Quintana was able to dominate yesterday in route to an easy win and a great fantasy outing. I expect the same from Lester today who will be at home, has a good matchup, and should have run support behind him. Matt Reynolds, Dominic Smith, Brandon Nimmo, and Travis Taijeron all strikeout over 25% against lefties with guys like Smith reaching a 43% strikeout rate. Lester also has the pitcher in the lineup which is huge for a guy who can struggle with command at times and gets into long innings often. He’s risky as he’s not cheap, but the upside is clearly there against this team and it’s a risk I’m willing to take in tournaments.
Feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) with any questions regarding todays slate. I will confirm these plays and more on the Deeper Dive later today. I’ll also be in the premium slack chat answering questions leading up to lock. Till next time, party animals!