Starting Nine 7/7/17
The data displayed will be from the start of this 2017 season. I like displaying this information on one page so I can see which pitchers have the most strikeout opportunities on a given night. We know strikeouts are huge in MLB DFS and looking at this information as lineups come out help me pinpoint which pitchers have the best matchups. With this info in front of us, here are the pitchers I think are in the best spots tonight.
James Paxton – James Paxton has found his velocity the last three starts. After coming off the DL, we were skeptical about how he would perform. He seems to have his arsenal back intact after some mechanical issues and now faces an Oakland team that performs against mediocre pitchers. They’ve hit well this series but they haven’t faced Paxton yet. The return of Semien also puts Barreto in question, which is a huge upgrade for Paxton. According to their projected lineup, the A’s have 4-5 hitters who could strikeout multiple times. It also helps that Paxton has been striking out righties at almost 28%, which make up most of this A’s lineup. I love the fact that he’s at home in a pitcher’s park, the strikeout matchup, and his price across the industry where he has room for error but also tons of upside.
Jordan Montgomery – Monty is $6,500 at home against the Brewers. That doesn’t make any sense. The Brewers have been hitting better since the return of Braun, but that’s not going to scare me away from Montgomery. He’s the type of pitcher that regardless of his opponent, could have a great outing striking out a batter per inning. Villar, Shaw, Thames, Broxton, and Aguilar have strikeout rates close to 30% or higher against left-handed pitching. Montgomery is in a prime spot to post a great outing and be in line for the win. Yankee Stadium plays a little better to lefties and Montgomery will have the advantage against them. He also lets you fit in all the bats you want. I love Montgomery for tournaments.
Drew Pomeranz – I feel like I always write up Drew Pomeranz. It’s plain and simple; Tampa strikes out a lot! Sale yesterday went through this lineup just piling up the strikeouts with ease. I don’t think Pomeranz can do that, but the command on his fastball has gotten much better lately. The last few starts he’s been able to locate the fastball up in the zone, setting up his curveball low and inside. The game log won’t tell the story as he had huge leads in his last two games, forcing him out of the games a little early. I like the strikeout upside for Pomeranz, the upgrade in park, and his chance at a win considering the Red Sox are -135 favorites. Tampa does have a ton of power making Pomeranz a tournament play only, but one that could pay off if he racks up the strikeouts.
Feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) with any questions regarding todays slate. I will confirm these plays and more on the Deeper Dive later today. I’ll also be in the premium slack chat answering questions leading up to lock. Till next time, party animals!