Starting Nine 7/31/17
The data displayed will be from the start of this 2017 season. I like displaying this information on one page so I can see which pitchers have the most strikeout opportunities on a given night. We know strikeouts are huge in MLB DFS and looking at this information as lineups come out help me pinpoint which pitchers have the best matchups. With this info in front of us, here are the pitchers I think are in the best spots tonight.
Luis Severino – Severino is the most talented arm on the mound today and it’s not close. He’ll face a Detroit team full of righties and that’s Severino’s specialty. Right-handers are hitting for a .295 wOBA on the season against him and he’s striking them out at 30%! The swinging-strike rate is amongst the league’s best at 14% against right-handed hitting so Severino should breeze through this lineup. You do need to pay for him, but by default your SP2 is going to be a cheapie so it’s easy to roster Severino. The floor he brings is crucial in cash games, but the strikeout upside he has is perfect for tournaments as well. A clear number one on my board for all game types.
Marco Estrada – We have to keep an eye on Estrada as the deadline approaches but for now he is my SP2 option. It’s not about how good he’s been, because he hasn’t, but how good the matchup is against these White Sox. The White Sox have been one of baseball’s worst teams the last few weeks and they’re showing no signs of improvement. Even a struggling Estrada should be able to deliver a good outing against a team of this caliber. At the time of this writing, the White Sox lineup is out already and it looks like the worst lineup of the season. With the departure of Melky Cabrera, the Sox are running on fumes. Davidson, Saladino, Moncada, Anderson, Gacia, and Engel have close to 30% strikeout rates against righties or higher! It’s too good of a spot to pass up, even if you’re not a believer in Estrada’s stuff.
Charlie Morton – With how good Morton has been recently, I expect the field to be all over this guy. To me he makes the cusp as a tournament play. Outside his last start, Morton had reached the seventh inning three times and completed the seventh just twice. With him being one of the highest owned pitcher his last start, and then having his best performance of the season, this is a perfect spot to be underweight. I’m writing him up because he’s in a good spot. He’s been great at home, gets a Tampa team that swings and misses as much as any team in the league, and should be in line for the win here. He’s a tournament play because he’s still Charlie Morton, he still has command issues, and getting passed the sixth inning is a true hurdle for him. As much as we love targeting this Tampa team, they do have power, and the addition of Duda added another power bat from the left side. I like Charlie Morton in tournaments, but if his ownership is going to be through the roof, which I expect, I’ll gladly be under the field on this one.
Feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) with any questions regarding todays slate. I will confirm these plays and more on the Deeper Dive later today. I’ll also be in the premium slack chat answering questions leading up to lock. Till next time, party animals!