Starting Nine 7/26/17
The data displayed will be from the start of this 2017 season. I like displaying this information on one page so I can see which pitchers have the most strikeout opportunities on a given night. We know strikeouts are huge in MLB DFS and looking at this information as lineups come out help me pinpoint which pitchers have the best matchups. With this info in front of us, here are the pitchers I think are in the best spots tonight.
Jake Arrieta – Arrieta has posted two decent outings in a row against Baltimore and St. Louis, only to face a team in the White Sox that is struggling right now. They’ve looked pedestrian against Hendricks and Lackey in this series and now get Arrieta who’s looking to put together a fourth good outing in his last five starts. Six out of the nine White Sox hitters should come from the right side, a side Arrieta has held his own against limiting them to a .294 wOBA while striking them out at 22%. Engel, Davidson, Moncada, and Anderson are a few of the guys who can strikeout multiple times tonight. It also helps that James Shields will be on the rubber for the Sox and that means run support for Arrieta. This checkmark all the boxes for me. A good strikeout matchup, a good chance for the win, and good enough price where we can get upside from him. I’m fine with Arrieta in all game types.
Carlos Martinez – Neither Arrieta nor Martinez reach $10k on Draftkings, making them really enticing plays tonight. Martinez will be at home against a Rockies team that looks pathetic away from their hitter’s paradise in Coors. To make matters worse for the Rockies, Ian Desmond and Trevor Story both left yesterday’s game with calf injuries and are questionable to play tonight. Outside of Blackmon, Martinez should cruise through this game and easily pay off his price tag. I expect him to have run support as well and be in line for the win considering Hoffman is pitching for the Rockies. There aren’t many options on tonight’s slate and Martinez is another one with a solid floor, but the upside you need to take down tournaments.
Marco Estrada – Marco Estrada has been terrible this year and has severely underperformed. If there is any team in the league that can turn your season around, it’s the Oakland A’s, just ask Liriano. To Estrada’s defense, his schedule hasn’t been a cake walk, games against Cleveland, Detroit, Yankees, Boston, and Texas make up five out of his last six games. Because of his putrid outings against these teams, Estrada has come down to almost minimum salary on DraftKings to $5,800. If you’re looking to fit in some top-tier bats tonight, Estrada can help you do that. Oakland has the third-highest K-rate against right-handed pitchers in baseball and could give Estrada the boost he needs. Again, he’s another pitcher that should have run support as Blackburn has not been good in his short tenure. I love Estrada in tournaments tonight as a high-upside play.
Feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) with any questions regarding todays slate. I will confirm these plays and more on the Deeper Dive later today. I’ll also be in the premium slack chat answering questions leading up to lock. Till next time, party animals!