Starting Nine 7/14/17
The data displayed will be from the start of this 2017 season. I like displaying this information on one page so I can see which pitchers have the most strikeout opportunities on a given night. We know strikeouts are huge in MLB DFS and looking at this information as lineups come out help me pinpoint which pitchers have the best matchups. With this info in front of us, here are the pitchers I think are in the best spots tonight.
Jacob deGrom – In my opinion, the highest scoring pitcher of the night will be deGrom. We mention all the time about the Rockies struggle on the road. They have a huge park downgrade and face a great strikeout pitcher. Outside of Blackmon and Arenado, deGrom has nothing to worry about in this lineup and still faces a pitcher at the end of it. I wish he wasn’t facing Jon Gray on the other side so the win could be a little more guaranteed, but he still brings a solid floor. At under $12k on DraftKings, he still has the strikeout stuff to bring upside at that price level. I think he’s suitable for all game types and will be my number one tonight if weather permits.
Charlie Morton – This is half a price play and half a legitimate play. I like the strikeout matchup against a Twins team that swings and misses quite a bit when they’re off. I don’t like that it’s in Minute Maid where any mistake can cost him greatly, but his $6,900 price tag makes up for the risk. If we see a mostly left-handed Twins lineup tonight, Charlie Morton will be my favorite GPP play of the night. He has been dominant against lefties this season and the strikeout numbers have been off the chart. He’s striking out lefties at about 30% due to his curveball which he can throw for first pitch strikes or down and inside on lefties as an out pitch. I’ll confirm this on the show later, but the more lefties the better for Morton whose price tag is extremely favorable.
Johnny Cueto – I assume most of the field will go with a top-tier arm and one of the many cheaper SP2’s which is the right way to go. What this does is leave the other viable route virtually unowned. Paying up at both pitchers spots with cheaper stacks doesn’t seem too popular today. Cueto faces a Padres team that was ice cold before the break and gets another tough matchup to start their second half. The Padres made Eickhoff look like a Cy Young winner last time out and could do the same against a better pitcher in Cueto. There isn’t much of a downgrade in parks for Cueto going to Petco and he’ll face the same weak lineup they always run out. I do have interest in Pomeranz, Jon Gray, and Paxton but they all seem like they’ll be higher owned than Cueto. I’ll take slightly lower ownership and the same upside. Most of the other guys I mentioned are also dependent on starting lineups. I think Cueto, regardless of who the Padres run out, is in a great spot.
Feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) with any questions regarding todays slate. I will confirm these plays and more on the Deeper Dive later today. I’ll also be in the premium slack chat answering questions leading up to lock. Till next time, party animals!