Starting Nine 6/9/17
The data displayed will be from the start of this 2017 season. I like displaying this information on one page so I can see which pitchers have the most strikeout opportunities on a given night. We know strikeouts are huge in MLB DFS and looking at this information as lineups come out help me pinpoint which pitchers have the best matchups. With this info in front of us, here are the pitchers I think are in the best spots tonight.
Matt Moore – Outside of Kluber, the pitching slate is ugly tonight. Most of these picks will be based on point-per-dollar and the upside they have relative to their price. Matt Moore leads the way as he’ll face a Minnesota team that has hit lefties well below-average this season. Moore has also developed some splits this season as he’s been much better against righties and he should face a ton of them today. He’s limited right-handed hitters to a .323 wOBA while striking them out at 18%. None of these numbers are eye-catching but they’re significantly better than his numbers against lefties. I love that he’ll be at home where he’s better and that he’ll face a pitcher in the lineup.
Eric Skoglund – It’s hard to jump to conclusions with Skoglund as we still haven’t seen much from him. He gets arguably the best matchup in baseball for a lefty tonight against the Padres. Per wRC+, the Padres are baseball’s worst team against left-handed pitchers. They also strikeout 24% against lefties which is 7th worst in the MLB. Skoglund might not be the strikeout monster we look for in DFS, but with the way the slate is shaping up, I’ll take a nice point-per-dollar outing and try to load up on bats which there are plenty of. The Padres have the slate’s lowest total, meaning Skoglund has a good shot to go six or seven innings and have a chance at a win.
Rich Hill – My favorite tournament play of the day is Rich Hill. Hill still hasn’t passed five innings this season, but he did pitch 97 pitches last start against the Brewers. I mentioned the Padres have the lowest total on the slate, but they’re tied with the Reds. I have this game as a lopsided affair like Vegas. While many will flock to Kluber and pay down at the SP2 spot, I’m willing to be a little different and go two mid-tier arms while stacking up on bats. The Reds will roll out 6-7 righties with Votto and Schebler. Rich Hill, like Matt Moore, developed some splits this season, where he’s been better against right-handed hitters and striking them out more often. He’s been striking out righties at close to 25% this season and he should get a good dose of them this evening. If he can pitch close to 95 pitches again today and be in line for the win, he could make a run as the highest scoring pitcher on the slate.
Feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) with any questions regarding todays slate. I will confirm these plays and more on the Deeper Dive later today. I’ll also be in the premium slack chat answering questions leading up to lock. Till next time, party animals!