Starting Nine 6/13/17
The data displayed will be from the start of this 2017 season. I like displaying this information on one page so I can see which pitchers have the most strikeout opportunities on a given night. We know strikeouts are huge in MLB DFS and looking at this information as lineups come out help me pinpoint which pitchers have the best matchups. With this info in front of us, here are the pitchers I think are in the best spots tonight.
Marco Estrada – Marco Estrada faces a Tampa team that still leads the league in strikeouts vs. right-handed pitching. He’s been better at home this season and has better splits against lefties than he does righties. With this Rays team having their dangerous hitters from the left side, I feel comfortable rolling out Estrada. He’ll have the advantage against guys like Smith, Dickerson, Morrison, and Rasmus who provide tons of power near the top of the lineup. Estrada has held lefties to a .288 wOBA while striking them out 29% of the time. I love the upside that he brings at an $8k price tag on Draftkings, making him one of my favorites plays on the day.
Gerrit Cole – Jameson Taillon was phenomenal yesterday against this Rockies team, and Gerrit Cole has a chance to repeat that performance. The Rockies have been horrible outside of Coors Field and they showed that yesterday. Cole has been great against right-handed hitting this season, and he’ll get a ton of righties today. Righties have hit for a .314 wOBA and have struck out 20% of the time. PNC has been great to pitchers and I love that Cole is at home here. He’s just $6.8k on DraftKings and lets you load up on bats tonight. I love Cole today as an SP2 tonight.
Jon Lester – Lester has been pedestrian the last few starts and it would be a cause for concern if you didn’t watch those games. These last few games are not told in the box scores. Lester has pitched well outside of some first inning bad luck the last few starts. The Cardinals game was probably the most tilting for him as he allowed three runs without the ball leaving the infield. Lester has been plagued by some horrible BABIP and hasn’t been beaten to death by the stolen base. Today he gets a Mets team whose best hitters are lefties and pitches in a great pitcher’s park. Lester has held lefties to a .268 wOBA, virtually no power with a .110 ISO, and strikes them out at 27%. The Mets will make a concerted effort to fit in as many righties as they can, but most of their righties hit for below league-average against righties outside of Cespedes and Flores. This team showcases virtually no speed outside of Lagares and Reyes so he shouldn’t have a problem there. This is a tournament play only, as Lester is extremely volatile, but one that could pay dividends at just $8.8k on DraftKings.
Feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) with any questions regarding todays slate. I will confirm these plays and more on the Deeper Dive later today. I’ll also be in the premium slack chat answering questions leading up to lock. Till next time, party animals!