Starting Nine 4/25/17

The data displayed will continue to be from the 2016 season until we get a big enough sample size this season. I like displaying this information on one page so I can see which pitchers have the most strikeout opportunities on a given night. We know strikeouts are huge in MLB DFS and looking at this information as lineups come out help me pinpoint which pitchers have the best matchups. With this info in front of us, here are the pitchers I think are in the best spots tonight.

Wade Miley – Miley is making his return to the Starting Nine and deservingly so. Surprisingly he’s been good this season with a string of good matchups so start off the season, and that will continue tonight. He faces a Tampa Bay team which strikes out as much as anyone in the league specially against left-handers. Guys like Dickerson, Miller, and Kiermaier had platoon advantages yesterday against Jimenez but won’t today. He’ll be a popular SP2 next to Kershaw which makes him a great tournament fade. If you’re playing cash, he seems like one of the best cheap options going tonight.

Robert Gsellman – This might seem surprising, as he’s facing a Braves team who I usually avoid due to their plate discipline. My reason for Gsellman is one you’ll have to dig a little deeper into. Gsellman has developed some reverse splits in his first year in the league and performs better against left-handers. He’s even striking out left-handers at a much higher rate (28%) than he is righties. The best hitters on this Braves team, Freeman, Markakis, Inciarte, will all be at a huge disadvantage tonight. It also helps that a pitcher will be in the lineup and he’s at home, a park that favors pitchers greatly. If weather lets this game play, Gsellman would be a top SP2 option for me.

Rick Porcello – I’m not a huge Porcello guy, especially when he’s nearing the $10k mark, but I like the spot. You’re going to have to dig to find this play as well. His reverse splits are extremely pronounced by now and it’s no secret he’s a lot better against lefties. Left-handed hitters were limited to a .265 wOBA last year while striking out close to 22% which is great. The park is a downgrade, but with Porcello’s pitching style, that shouldn’t be a problem. I love that Porcello goes deep into games, and usually pitches over 100 pitches. This could be a complete game spot for him and at less than $10k, makes a great pivot off Kershaw.

I usually pick three pitchers but one of these is almost surely to be postponed so I’ll give two more that are up there on my list. Corbin against a team he just dominated. The park downgrade is worrisome, but worth the risk in tournaments. Gerrit Cole at home against the Cubs who do have holes in their lineups. Pitcher in the lineup and high strikeout-rates are the reasoning behind him.

Feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) with any questions regarding todays slate. I will confirm these plays and more on the Deeper Dive later today. I’ll also be in the premium slack chat answering questions leading up to lock. Till next time, party animals!

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