JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/9/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a tidy weekend split slate, with five games early and ten games on the main slate! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Welington Castillo, BAL (239 EP, +29 GAP, 75% Contact) EARLY
Yadier Molina, STL (161 EP, +77 GAP, 85% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, NYY (147 EP, -13 GAP, 76% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, LAD (150 EP, +22 GAP, 69% Contact)
Joey Gallo, TEX (236 EP, +23 GAP, 61% Contact)
Edwin Encaracion, CLE (158 EP, -15 GAP, 84% Contact) EARLY
Anthony Rizzo, CHC (143 EP, -4 GAP, 83% Contact)
Albert Pujols, LAA (124 EP, +57 GAP, 92% Contact)
Chris Davis, BAL (173 EP, +34 GAP, 60% Contact) EARLY
Carlos Santana, CLE (117 EP, -20 GAP, 88% Contact) EARLY
Brandon Drury, ARI (198 EP, +29 GAP, 77% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (192 EP, -17 GAP, 64% Contact) EARLY
Daniel Descalso, ARI (160 EP, +46 GAP, 75% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, WAS (145 EP, +47 GAP, 76% Contact)
Kolten Wong, STL (137 EP, +37 GAP, 80% Contact)
Scooter Gennett, CIN (131 EP, -3 GAP, 80% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, DET (125 EP, +20 GAP, 82% Contact) EARLY
Kyle Seager, SEA (149 EP, +47 GAP, 82% Contact) – 60% FB rate L30
Nick Castellanos, DET (145 EP, +21 GAP, 86% Contact) EARLY
Manny Machado, BAL (144 EP, +1 GAP, 88% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (135 EP, +29 GAP, 89% Contact)
Jose Ramirez, CLE (102 EP, -78 GAP, 88% Contact) EARLY
Trea Turner, WAS (163 EP, +1 GAP, 83% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM (134 EP, +19 GAP, 77% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (118 EP, +2 GAP, 87% Contact) EARLY
JD Martinez, ARI (227 EP, -40 GAP, 67% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, LAD (189 EP, +38 GAP, 72% Contact)
Khris Davis, OAK (188 EP, -20 GAP, 66% Contact) EARLY
Trey Mancini, BAL (137 EP, +48 GAP, 81% Contact) EARLY
Jose Martinez, STL (169 EP, -6 GAP, 79% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (150 EP, +20 GAP, 72% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, SEA (150 EP, -22 GAP, 74% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Todd Frazier, NYY (339 EP, +120 GAP, 76% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (280 EP, -36 GAP, 76% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL (271 EP, +106 GAP, 78% Contact)
Michael Taylor, WAS (248 EP, +19 GAP, 35% Contact)
Josh Reddick, HOU (224 EP, +43 GAP, 91% Contact)
Sal Perez, KCR (223 EP, +65 GAP, 84% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
CLEVELAND INDIANS vs. Gabriel Ynoa (EARLY)
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs. Josh Tomlin (EARLY)
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Chase Anderson (EARLY)
ST LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Chad Kuhl
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS vs. Jhouls Chacin
WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. Mark Leiter
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW