JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/8/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a full on Hurricane Ready 15-game slate tonight! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Welington Castillo, BAL (239 EP, +29 GAP, 75% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, LAD (157 EP, -22 GAP, 70% Contact)
Yadier Molina, STL (150 EP, +53 GAP, 86% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, NYY (149 EP, -15 GAP, 75% Contact)
Joey Gallo, TEX (247 EP, +5 GAP, 64% Contact) – 77% contact over last seven days
Adrian Gonzalez, LAD (172 EP, +73 GAP, 81% Contact)
Chris Davis, BAL (167 EP, -23 GAP, 58% Contact)
Yonder Alonso, SEA (159 EP, +65 GAP, 76% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (139 EP, -56 GAP, 75% Contact)
Brandon Drury, ARI (205 EP, +35 GAP, 76% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (192 EP, -31 GAP, 65% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, WAS (146 EP, +53 GAP, 75% Contact)
Kolten Wong, STL (140 EP, +44 GAP, 79% Contact)
Brian Dozier, MIN (137 EP, -8 GAP, 81% Contact)
Scooter Gennett, CIN (134 EP, +0 GAP, 80% Contact)
Daniel Descalso, ARI (139 EP, +35 GAP, 74% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, TEX (158 EP, -5 GAP, 81% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (147 EP, +7 GAP, 81% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (143 EP, +24 GAP, 90% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (136 EP, -6 GAP, 89% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, KCR (128 EP, +27 GAP, 86% Contact)
Jake Lamb, ARI (151 EP, +41 GAP, 74% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM (129 EP, +12 GAP, 78% Contact)
Jorge Polanco, MIN (124 EP, -44 GAP, 83% Contact)
JD Martinez, ARI (227 EP, -24 GAP, 68% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, LAD (218 EP, +54 GAP, 74% Contact)
Khris Davis, OAK (200 EP, -35 GAP, 65% Contact)
Justin Upton, LAA (183 EP, -16 GAP, 62% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, LAD (170 EP, -36 GAP, 67% Contact)
Trey Mancini, BAL (137 EP, +48 GAP, 81% Contact)
Nick Markakis, ATL (135 EP, +46 GAP, 84% Contact)
Aaron Hicks, NYY (129 EP, +51 GAP, 77% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Jose Martinez, STL (302 EP, +28 GAP, 83% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL (223 EP, +88 GAP, 78% Contact)
Jose Ramirez, CLE (214 EP, -120 GAP, 100% Contact) – Check out the TOP CONTACT table for how many Indians are 80+% contact bats with 100 or over expected power!
Orlando Arcia, MIL (203 EP, +111 GAP, 75% Contact)
Kyle Seager, SEA (202 EP, +23 GAP, 92% Contact)
Josh Reddick, HOU (196 EP, +122 GAP, 89% Contact)
Trea Turner, WAS (174 EP, +79 GAP, 77% Contact)
Phillip Ervin, CIN (140 EP, +70 GAP, 90% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS vs. Jordan Lyles
HOUSTON ASTROS vs. Jharel Cotton
NEW YORK YANKEES vs. Martin Perez
TORONTO BLUE JAYS vs. Buck Farmer
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW