JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/7/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a sweet spot eight-game slate tonight! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Yadier Molina, STL (136 EP, +34 GAP, 88% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, LAD (167 EP, +24 GAP, 69% Contact)
Adrian Gonzalez, LAD (172 EP, +73 GAP, 81% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, CLE (142 EP, -12 GAP, 84% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, CHC (135 EP, -5 GAP, 84% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (127 EP, +7 GAP, 84% Contact)
Josh Harrison, PIT (137 EP, +20 GAP, 77% Contact)
Brian Dozier, MIN (129 EP, -14 GAP, 81% Contact)
Scooter Gennett, CIN (124 EP, -18 GAP, 80% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (195 EP, -19 GAP, 64% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, SDP (116 EP, +55 GAP, 75% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (143 EP, +24 GAP, 90% Contact)
Eugenio Suarez, CIN (139 EP, -9 GAP, 82% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, KCR (131 EP, +16 GAP, 85% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (151 EP, +7 GAP, 81% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (138 EP, +12 GAP, 75% Contact)
Yangervis Solarte, SDP (110 EP, +20 GAP, 85% Contact)
Jorge Polanco, MIN (122 EP, -45 GAP, 83% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (159 EP, +4 GAP, 75% Contact)
Jose Martinez, STL (165 EP, -6 GAP, 80% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, LAD (202 EP, +54 GAP, 73% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA (182 EP, -92 GAP, 70% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, LAD (163 EP, +0 GAP, 67% Contact)
Eddie Rosario, MIN (119 EP, -26 GAP, 84% Contact)
Max Kepler, MIN (109 EP, -33 GAP, 81% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Michael Taylor, WAS (238 EP, +80 GAP, 78% Contact)
Trea Turner, WAS (211 EP, +60 GAP, 81% Contact)
Jose Ramirez, CLE (204 EP, -130 GAP, 100% Contact)
Thomas Pham, STL (198 EP, +135 GAP, 91% Contact)
Stephen Piscotty, STL (194 EP, +27 GAP, 89% Contact)
Alcides Escobar, KCR (168 EP, +1 GAP, 90% Contact)
Travis d’Arnaud, NYM (150 EP, -27 GAP, 89% Contact)
Alex Gordon, KCR (140 EP, +87 GAP, 75% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
ST LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Clayton Richard
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. Sam Gaviglio
MIAMI MARLINS vs. Sean Newcomb
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW