JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/6/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a 12-game slate tonight! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Yasmani Grandal, LAD (174 EP, +25 GAP, 70% Contact)
James McCann, DET (103 EP, +27 GAP, 77% Contact)
Adrian Gonzalez, LAD (172 EP, +73 GAP, 81% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, CLE (144 EP, -12 GAP, 84% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, CHC (135 EP, -4 GAP, 80% Contact)
Carlos Santana, CLE (130 EP, +4 GAP, 86% Contact)
Justin Smoak, TOR (129 EP, -3 GAP, 76% Contact)
Joey Gallo, TEX (223 EP, -36 GAP, 66% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, SDP (136 EP, +76 GAP, 75% Contact)
Josh Harrison, PIT (133 EP, +20 GAP, 77% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, DET (132 EP, +52 GAP, 84% Contact)
Chase Utley, LAD (131 EP, +77 GAP, 78% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (190 EP, -20 GAP, 64% Contact)
Ben Zobrist, CHC (102 EP, +20 GAP, 86% Contact)
Jose Ramirez, CLE (105 EP, -73 GAP, 87% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (156 EP, +20 GAP, 90% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, COL (148 EP, +22 GAP, 83% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (146 EP, -15 GAP, 90% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, KCR (139 EP, +18 GAP, 86% Contact)
Tim Beckham, BAL (104 EP, +12 GAP, 79% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (112 EP, +1 GAP, 85% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (206 EP, -11 GAP, 80% Contact)
Jose Martinez, STL (177 EP, -27 GAP, 80% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL (140 EP, -25 GAP, 84% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, LAD (207 EP, +32 GAP, 73% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, COL (199 EP, +60 GAP, 63% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, LAD (166 EP, +0 GAP, 66% Contact)
Lorenzo Cain, KCR (106 EP, +24 GAP, 86% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Thomas Pham, STL (295 EP, +92 GAP, 93% Contact)
Trea Turner, WAS (210 EP, +84 GAP, 80% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL (210 EP, +52 GAP, 78% Contact)
Stephen Piscotty, STL (188 EP, +64 GAP, 93% Contact)
Trey Mancini, BAL (180 EP, +118 GAP, 90% Contact)
Brian McCann, HOU (161 EP, +23 GAP, 80% Contact)
Josh Reddick, HOU (144 EP, +84 GAP, 88% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
HOUSTON ASTROS vs. Andrew Moore
CLEVELAND INDIANS vs. Reynaldo Lopez
COLORADO ROCKIES vs. Johnny Cueto
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Taijuan Walker
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Gerrit Cole
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW