JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/5/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a full-on, 15 game extravaganza tonight! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Welington Castillo, BAL (233 EP, +5 GAP, 76% Contact)
Yadier Molina, STL (143 EP, +42 GAP, 87% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, LAD (218 EP, +23 GAP, 73% Contact)
Joey Gallo, TEX (207 EP, -35 GAP, 66% Contact)
Yonder Alonso, SEA (163 EP, +62 GAP, 76% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (149 EP, +4 GAP, 80% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (154 EP, +0 GAP, 83% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, CLE (146 EP, -14 GAP, 83% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, COL (199 EP, +73 GAP, 62% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, CHC (134 EP, -2 GAP, 83% Contact)
Carlos Santana, CLE (133 EP, -6 GAP, 85% Contact)
Brandon Drury, ARI (213 EP, +25 GAP, 76% Contact)
Andrew Romine, DET (164 EP, +38 GAP, 80% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (205 EP, -26 GAP, 62% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, WAS (134 EP, +53 GAP, 76% Contact)
Jose Ramirez, CLE (100 EP, -58 GAP, 86% Contact)
Eugenio Suarez, CIN (173 EP, +15 GAP, 81% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (170 EP, +24 GAP, 90% Contact)
Kyle Seager, SEA (145 EP, +56 GAP, 80% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, COL (141 EP, +18 GAP, 81% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (139 EP, -2 GAP, 90% Contact)
Chase Headley, NYY (138 EP, +1 GAP, 77% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, SDP (127 EP, +69 GAP, 76% Contact)
Joe Panik, SFG (116 EP, +18 GAP, 94% Contact)
Trevor Story, COL (173 EP, -3 GAP, 59% Contact)
Yangervis Solarte, SDP (108 EP, +32 GAP, 87% Contact)
Zack Cozart, CIN (102 EP, +16 GAP, 86% Contact)
Tim Beckham, BAL (115 EP, +11 GAP, 78% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (123 EP, +7 GAP, 76% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (119 EP, +2 GAP, 845 Contact)
Jorge Polanco, MIN (122 EP, -48 GAP, 83% Contact)
JD Martinez, ARI (227 EP, -26 GAP, 71% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (209 EP, -8 GAP, 80% Contact)
Nick Markakis, ATL (154 EP, +58 GAP, 82% Contact)
Mike Trout, LAA (138 EP, -5 GAP, 78% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA (198 EP, -94 GAP, 71% Contact)
Trey Mancini, BAL (130 EP, +33 GAP, 81% Contact)
Aaron Hicks, NYY (129 EP, +51 GAP, 77% Contact)
Eddie Rosario, MIN (127 EP, -28 GAP, 82% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Thomas Pham, STL (238 EP, +34 GAP, 89% Contact)
Randal Grichuk, STL (237 EP, +18 GAP, 78% Contact)
Matt Olson, OAK (236 EP, -55 GAP, 79% Contact)
Josh Harrison, PIT (223 EP, +118 GAP, 86% Contact)
Matt Joyce, OAK (223 EP, +19 GAP, 85% Contact)
Jose Martinez, STL (207 EP, +49 GAP, 83% Contact)
Manuel Margot, SDP (161 EP, +92 GAP, 76% Contact)
Brian Dozier, MIN (158 EP, -20 GAP, 88% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
COLORADO ROCKIES vs. Ty Blach
CLEVELAND INDIANS vs. David Holmberg
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Stephen Brault
CINCINNATI REDS vs. Zach Davies
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. Jake Odorizzi
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW