JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/4/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a SUPER SOLID 11- game slate tonight! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Welington Castillo, BAL (223 EP, +12 GAP, 80% Contact)
Yadier Molina, STL (129 EP, +26 GAP, 88% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, NYY (151 EP, -7 GAP, 73% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (158 EP, -2 GAP, 83% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (156 EP, -33 GAP, 75% Contact) LATE
Trey Mancini, BAL (128 EP, +26 GAP, 80% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, CHC (126 EP, -10 GAP, 83% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, COL (209 EP, +86 GAP, 64% Contact)
Joey Gallo, TEX (195 EP, -39 GAP, 65% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, LAA (163 EP, -45 GAP, 66% Contact)
Hanley Ramirez, BOS (157 EP, +2 GAP, 67% Contact) LATE
Carlos Asuaje, SDP (148 EP, +72 GAP, 76% Contact)
Kolten Wong, STL (137 EP, +32 GAP, 80% Contact)
Brian Dozier, MIN (129 EP, -26 GAP, 81% Contact) LATE
Ian Kinsler, DET (128 EP, +45 GAP, 81% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (200 EP, -25 GAP, 63% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (176 EP, +30 GAP, 90% Contact) LATE
Eugenio Suarez, CIN (163 EP, +3 GAP, 80% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (155 EP, +10 Gap, 80% Contact) LATE
Nolan Arenado, COL (149 EP, +13 GAP, 80% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (141 EP, -7 GAP, 91% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, KCR (138 EP, +26 GAP, 86% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, DET (126 EP, +16 GAP, 82% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (136 EP, +25 GAP, 78% Contact) LATE
Trevor Story, COL (166 EP, -4 GAP, 60% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (161 EP, +0 GAP, 75% Contact)
Nick Markakis, ATL (149 EP, +49 GAP, 83% Contact)
Carlos Gonzalez, COL (144 EP, +43 GAP, 75% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL (127 EP, -25 GAP, 80% Contact)
Eddie Rosario, MIN (127 EP, -28 GAP, 82% Contact) LATE
Mike Trout, LAA (126 EP, -24 GAP, 79% Contact)
Khris Davis, OAK (216 EP, -2 GAP, 64% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA (205 EP, -97 GAP, 71% Contact) LATE
Matt Joyce, OAK (182 EP, -42 GAP, 73% Contact)
Justin Upton, LAA (177 EP, -51 GAP, 62% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Kaleb Cowart, LAA (348 EP, +269 GAP, 80% Contact)
Thomas Pham, STL (294 EP, +46 GAP, 93% Contact)
Logan Morrison, TAM (289 EP, +23 GAP, 79% Contact)
Randal Grichuk, STL (223 EP, +2 GAP, 75% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, STL (178 EP, +77 GAP, 79% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Chad Kuhl
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs. Jordan Montgomery
LOS ANGELES ANGELS vs. Chris Smith
BOSTON RED SOX vs. JA Happ (LATE)
ST LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Luis Perdomo
CINCINNATI REDS vs. Chase Anderson
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. TAMPA BAY RAYS (LATE)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW