JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/22/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a sweet spot nine-game slate tonight! TOP STACKS, TOP POWER BATS and stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS vs. Adam Conley
CLEVELAND INDIANS vs. Erasmo Ramirez
CINCINNATI REDS vs. Rick Porcello
KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs. Reynaldo Lopez
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. Daniel Norris
SNEAKY STACKS: ST LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Ivan Nova/OAKLAND A’s vs Nick Martinez
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position, check the tables for full lists):
Chris Iannetta, ARI (152 EP, +33 GAP, 75% Contact)
Yadier Molina, STL (137 EP, +20 GAP, 87% Contact)
Welington Castillo, BAL (229 EP, +51 GAP, 69% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, LAD (160 EP, +50 GAP, 61% Contact)
Justin Smoak, TOR (177 EP, +53 GAP, 79% Contact)
Kendrys Morales, TOR (151 EP, +36 GAP, 78% Contact)
Jose Abreu, CHW (141 EP, -5 GAP, 81% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (127 EP, -22 GAP, 76% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, CLE (124 EP, -20 GAP, 81% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, STL (189 EP, +31 GAP, 66% Contact)
Scooter Gennett, CIN (140 EP, -2 GAP, 79% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, DET (139 EP, +10 GAP, 79% Contact)
Jed Lowrie, OAK (128 EP, -6 GAP, 84% Contact)
Brandon Drury, ARI (125 EP, +20 GAP, 84% Contact)
Jose Ramirez, CLE (123 EP, -96 GAP, 93% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (182 EP, +32 GAP, 79% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, DET (149 EP, -18 GAP, 91% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, COL (147 EP, 26 GAP, 83% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (138 EP, +27 GAP, 83% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM (171 EP, +6 GAP, 77% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (162 EP, -18 GAP, 88% Contact)
Trea Turner, WAS (153 EP, +2 GAP, 80% Contact)
Jorge Polanco, MIN (124 EP, -10 GAP, 84% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (161 EP, +7 GAP, 73% Contact
Jose Martinez, STL (140 EP, +47 GAP, 83% Contact)
Brandon Moss, KCR (140 EP, -6 GAP, 75% Contact)
Eddie Rosario, MIN (134 EP, -6 GAP, 83% Contact)
Thomas Pham, STL (132 EP, -26 GAP, 79% Contact)
Matt Joyce, OAK (129 EP, -34 GAP, 78% Contact)
JD Martinez, ARI (258 EP, -45 GAP, 69% Contact)
Matt Olson, OAK (204 EP, -53 GAP, 73% Contact)
Aaron Judge, NYY (169 EP, -46 GAP, 64% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (154 EP, -7 GAP, 74% Contact)
Byron Buxton, MIN (151 EP, +4 GAP, 71% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, LAD (277 EP, +74 GAP, 78% Contact)
Russell Martin, TOR (246 EP, +73 GAP, 92% Contact)
AJ Pollock, ARI (243 EP, -85 GAP, 88% Contact)
Aaron Altherr, PHI (210 EP, +25 GAP, 86% Contact)
Ryan Braun, MIL (172 EP, +1 GAP, 86% Contact)
Mookie Betts, BOS (161 EP, -10 GAP, 86% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (146 EP, +37 GAP, 80% Contact)
Carlos Correa, HOU (145 EP, +53 GAP, 86% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW