JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/2/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a SUPER SOLID 11- game slate tonight! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Welington Castillo, BAL (207 EP, +21 GAP, 78% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, LAD (157 EP, +18 GAP, 68% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (180 EP, -46 GAP, 75% Contact)
Adrian Gonzalez, LAD (177 EP, +79 GAP, 79% Contact)
CJ Cron, LAA (172 EP, +5 GAP, 76% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (163 EP, +1 GAP, 82% Contact)
Yonder Alonso, SEA (157 EP, +72 GAP, 78% Contact)
Joey Gallo, TEX (242 EP, -60 GAP, 61% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, COL (242 EP, +90 GAP, 63% Contact)
Chase Utley, LAD (196 EP, +115 GAP, 77% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, SDP (142 EP, +71 GAP, 75% Contact)
Chris Taylor, LAD (140 EP, +11 GAP, 76% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, WAS (127 EP, +31 GAP, 76% Contact)
Brian Dozier, MIN (126 EP, -22 GAP, 80% Contact)
Brandon Drury, ARI (218 EP, +38 GAP, 71% Contact)
Eugenio Suarez, CIN (175 EP, +1 GAP, 79% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (156 EP, +32 GAP, 91% Contact)
Kyle Seager, SEA (149 EP, +57 GAP, 80% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, COL (142 EP, +9 GAP, 83% Contact)
Jake Lamb, ARI (138 EP, +11 GAP, 76% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, KCR (135 EP, +23 GAP, 85% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, TEX (132 EP, -12 GAP, 81% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (130 EP, -19 GAP, 91% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, LAA (156 EP, -37 GAP, 65% Contact)
Trevor Story, COL (162 EP, -5 GAP, 61% Contact)
Jorge Polanco, MIN (112 EP, -62 GAP, 84% Contact)
Yangervis Solarte, SDP (103 EP, +25 GAP, 88% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (197 EP, -10 GAP, 79% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, SEA (161 EP, -54 GAP, 75% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL (135 EP, -30 GAP, 81% Contact)
Mike Trout, LAA (130 EP, -28 GAP, 78% Contact)
Khris Davis, OAK (223 EP, +23 GAP, 63% Contact)
Justin Upton, LAA (200 EP, -56 GAP, 61% Contact)
Brandon Moss, KCR (192 EP, -55 GAP, 60% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, LAD (191 EP, +33 GAP, 72% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, LAD (185 EP, -28 GAP, 66% Contact)
Matt Joyce, OAK (174 EP, -32 GAP, 73% Contact)
Matt Olson, OAK (150 EP, -22 GAP, 71% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Logan Morrison, TAM (307 EP, -36 GAP, 86% Contact)
Craig Gentry, BAL (286 EP, +141 GAP, 92% Contact)
Kaleb Cowart, LAA (273 EP, +210 GAP, 77% Contact)
Scooter Gennett, CIN (211 EP, +29 GAP, 87% Contact)
Adam Jones, BAL (200 EP, +4 GAP, 84% Contact)
Mitch Garver, MIN (161 EP, +3 GAP, 80% Contact)
Albert Pujols, LAA (158 EP, +34 GAP, 92% Contact)
Cliff Pennington, LAA (149 EP, +26 GAP, 90% Contact)
JD Davis, HOU (149 EP, +86 GAP, 77% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
SEATTLE MARINERS vs. Jharel Cotton
OAKLAND A’s vs. Yovani Gallardo
TEXAS RANGERS vs. Ricky Nolasco
LA ANGELS vs. AJ Griffin
CINCINNATI REDS vs. Jamison Taillon
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW