JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/21/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a sweet spot nine-game slate tonight! TOP STACKS, TOP POWER BATS and stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
ST LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Homer Bailey
TORONTO BLUE JAYS vs. Jason Vargas
TAMPA BAY RAYS vs. Gabriel Ynoa
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. Jordan Zimmermann
SNEAKY STACK: COLORDAO ROCKIES vs. Clayton Richard
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Welingotn Castillo, BAL (229 EP, +32 GAP, 70% Contact)
Yadier Molina, STL (134 EP, +22 GAP, 87% Contact)
Travis d’Arnaud, NYM (121 EP, +3 GAP, 91% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, STL (205 EP, +35 GAP, 65% Contact)
Eric Thames, MIL (188 EP, -28 GAP, 60% Contact)
Justin Smoak, TOR (183 EP, +55 GAP, 79% Contact)
Lucas Duda, TAM (177 EP, -24 GAP, 65% Contact)
Kendrys Morales, TOR (155 EP, +37 GAP, 78% Contact)
Logan Morrison, TAM (155 EP, -36 GAP, 63% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, CHC (126 EP, -5 GAP, 81% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (102 EP, +11 GAP, 88% Contact)
Scooter Gennett, CIN (148 EP, +0 GAP, 80% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (148 EP, -2 GAP, 55% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, DET (144 EP, +10 GAP, 79% Contact)
Jose Altuve, HOU (124 EP, +15 GAP, 84% Contact)
Kolten Wong, STL (121 EP, +49 GAP, 79% Contact)
Brian Dozier, MIN (120 EP, +16 GAP, 81% Contact)
Whit Merrifield, KCR (116 EP, +25 GAP, 86% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (175 EP, +17 GAP, 77% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, COL (154 EP, +29 GAP, 82% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, DET (149 EP, -25 GAP, 91% Contact)
Rio Ruiz, ATL (134 EP, +86 GAP, 75% Contact)
Josh Donaldson, TOR (133 EP, -52 GAP, 75% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (119 EP, +23 GAP, 84% Contact)
Trevor Story, COL (216 EP, +31 GAP, 68% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (158 EP, +9 GAP, 73% Contact)
Trea Turner, WAS (149 EP, -9 GAP, 80% Contact)
Jorge Polanco, MIN (136 EP, -20 GAP, 82% Contact)
Domingo Santana, MIL (173 PE, -29 GAP, 66% Contact)
Corey Dickerson, TAM (162 EP, +19 GAP, 70% Contact)
Byron Buxton, MIN (152 EP, -19 GAP, 69% Contact)
Jose Martinez, STL (147 EP, +48 GAP, 83% Contact)
Jayson Werth, WAS (146 EP, +73 GAP, 77% Contact)
Thomas Pham, STL (140 EP, -26 GAP, 79% Contact)
Harrison Bader, STL (129 EP, +33 GAP, 84% Contact)
Eddie Rosario, MIN (125 EP, +2 GAP, 84% Contact)
Steve Pearce, TOR (124 EP, +39 GAP, 81% Contact)
Trey Mancini, BAL (122 EP, +35 GAP, 81% Contact)
Josh Reddick, HOU (107 EP, +19 GAP, 90% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Jesus Aguilar, MIL (307 EP, +114 GAP, 75% Contact)
Russell Martin, TOR (246 EP, +74 GAP, 92% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (206 EP, -76 GAP, 88% Contact)
Ryan Braun, MIL (200 EP, +5 GAP, 88% Contact)
Wil Myers, SDP (157 EP, -1 GAP, 79% Contact)
Wilson Ramos, TAM (157 EP, +10 GAP, 94% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW