JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/20/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a STRONG 11-game slate tonight! TOP STACKS, TOP POWER BATS and stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
ST LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Rookie Davis
CLEVELAND INDIANS vs. Ricky Nolasco
SEATTLE MARINERS vs. Andrew Cashner
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Jake Thompson
SNEAKY STACK: KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs. Brett Anderson
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Welington Castillo, BAL (229 EP, +27 GAP, 71% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, LAD (172 EP, +64 GAP, 61% Contact)
Yadier Molina, STL (137 EP, +25 GAP, 87% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, STL (192 EP, +50 GAP, 63% Contact)
Justin Smoak, TOR (180 EP, +45 GAP, 78% Contact)
Joey Gallo, TEX (174 EP, +33 GAP, 64% Contact)
Kendrys Morales, TOR (148 EP, +28 GAP, 77% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, CLE (138 EP, +6 GAP, 82% Contact)
Albert Pujols, LAA (105 EP, +44 GAP, 90% Contact)
Daniel Descalso, ARI (196 EP, +80 GAP, 79% Contact)
Scooter Gennett, CIN (135 EP, -16 GAP, 80% Contact)
Jose Ramirez, CLE (122 EP, -85 GAP, 92% Contact)
Kolten Wong, STL (119 EP, +45 GAP, 78% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (140 EP, -+22 GAP, 85% Contact)
Kyle Seager, SEA (122 EP, +3 GAP, 81% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, TEX (117 EP, -10 GAP, 79% Contact)
Trevor Story, COL (202 EP, +13 GAP, 68% Contact)
Trea Turner, WAS (149 EP, +9 GAP, 80% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (144 EP, -25 GAP, 91% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (176 EP, -80 GAP, 72% Contact)
Justin Upton, LAA (163 EP, -44 GAP, 66% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, LAD (156 EP, -9 GAP, 67% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, LAD (151 EP, +39 GAP, 66% Contact)
Jose Martinez, STL (145 EP, +47 GAP, 83% Contact)
Harrison Bader, STL (129 EP, +32 GAP, 84% Contact)
Thomas Pham, STL (128 EP, -30 GAP, 77% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (146 EP, +21 GAP, 72% Contact)
Ryan Braun, MIL (119 EP, +8 GAP, 83% Contact)
Ben Gamel SEA (117 EP, +24 GAP, 79% Contact)
Josh Reddick, HOU (101 EP, +27 GAP, 88% Contact)
Mookie Betts, BOS (106 EP, -2 GAP, 85% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
AJ Pollock, ARI (286 EP, -50 GAP, 85% Contact)
Jose Altuve, HOU (243 EP, +164 GAP, 88% Contact)
Pablo Sandoval, SFG (223 EP, +122 GAP, 85% Contact)
Josh Donaldson, TOR (212 EP, -82 GAP, 84% Contact)
Wilson Ramos, TBR (201 EP, +0 GAP, 85% Contact)
Russell Martin, TOR (182 EP, +24 GAP, 92% Contact)
Elvis Andrus, TEX (161 EP, +126 GAP, 86% Contact)
Carlos Correa, HOU (145 EP, +53 GAP, 86% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72).