JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/18/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a sweet-spot seven-game slate tonight! TOP STACKS, TOP POWER BATS and stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
DETROIT TIGERS vs. Jharel Cotton
MIAMI MARLINS vs. Matt Harvey
PITTSBURGH PIRATES vs. Brent Suter
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Chris Iannetta, ARI (144 EP, +34 GAP, 77% Contact)
Stephen Vogt, MIL (129 EP, +24 GAP, 80% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, NYY (118 EP, -25 GAP, 78% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, LAD (149 EP, +33 GAP, 61% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (139 EP, -5 GAP, 75% Contact)
Eric Thames, MIL (195 EP, -58 GAP, 59% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, LAD (160 EP, -11 GAP, 67% Contact)
Daniel Descalso, ARI (202 EP, +91 GAP, 78% Contact)
Brandon Drury, ARI (142 EP, -1 GAP, 83% Contact)
Brian Dozier, MIN (136 EP, +8 GAP, 81% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, DET (136 EP, +28 GAP, 78% Contact)
Josh Harrison, PIT (217 EP, +39 GAP, 73% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, DET (153 EP, -5 GAP, 89% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (141 EP, + 20 GAP, 84% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (125 EP, +19 GAP, 85% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM (140 EP, -18 GAP, 79% Contact)
Jorge Polanco, MIN (133 EP, -20 GAP, 83% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (155 EP, -5 GAP, 74% Contact)
Matt Olson, OAK (179 EP, -38 GAP, 78% Contact)
Eddie Rosario, MIN (128 EP, -16 GAP, 86% Contact)
JD Martinez, ARI (258 EP, -45 GAP, 70% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (186 EP, -79 GAP, 71% Contact)
Domingo Santana, MIL (174 EP, -4 GAP, 67% Contact)
Aaron Judge, NYY (169 EP, -12 GAP, 61% Contact)
Byron Buxton, MIN (165 EP, -28 GAP, 73% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Jed Lowrie, OAK (244 EP, +6 GAP, 75% Contact)
Greg Polanco, PIT (224 EP, +224 GAP, 75% Contact)
Chase Utley, LAD (199 EP, -101 GAP, 91% Contact)
Ryan Braun, MIL (194 EP, +17 GAP, 85% Contact)
Mitch Moreland, BOS (182 EP, +15 GAP, 86% Contact)
Mookie Betts, BOS (161 EP, -30 GAP, 92% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW