JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/16/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a sweet-spot split slate tonight! Six games at 4pm and seven at 7! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
CINCINNATI REDS vs. Ivan Nova
NEW YORK YANKEES vs. Jeremy Hellickson
CLEVELAND INDIANS vs. Jason Hammel
MILWAUKEE BREWERS vs. Adam Conley
COLORADO ROCKIES vs. Jordan Lyles
OAKLAND A’s vs. Ben Lively
LOS ANGELES ANGELS vs. Cole Hamels
TEXAS RANGERS vs. Parker Bridwell
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Welington Castillo, BAL (239 EP, +38 GAP, 76% Contact)
Yadier Molina, STL (149 EP, +43 GAP, 85% Contact)
Kendrys Morales, TOR (144 EP, +20 GAP, 77% Contact)
Justin Smoak, TOR (142 EP, +!5 GAP, 79% Contact)
Jose Abreu, CHW (137 EP, -41 GAP, 84% Contact)
Wil Myers, SDP (134 EP, +6 GAP, 75% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, CHC (130 EP, -32 GAP, 81% Contact)
Eric Thames, MIL (195 EP, -57 GAP, 59% Contact)
Lucas Duda, TBR (183 EP, -27 GAP, 70% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, COL (179 EP, +33 GAP, 63% Contact)
Miguel Cabrera, DET (161 EP, +61 GAP, 73% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (112 EP, +8 GAP, 88% Contact)
Brian Dozier, MIN (142 EP, +10 GAP, 80% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, DET (139 EP, +19 GAP, 77% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (167 EP, -38 GAP, 59% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, COL (165 EP, +9 GAP, 83% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (160 EP, +13 GAP, 79% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (153 EP, +29 GAP, 83% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, DET (149 EP, -5 GAP, 88% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, TEX (140 EP, +6 GAP, 78% Contact)
Rio Ruiz, ATL (130 EP, +76 GAP, 78% Contact)
Todd Frazier, NYY (208 EP, +34 GAP, 67% Contact)
Joey Gallo, TEX (179 EP, +38 GAP, 62% Contact)
Hernan Perez, MIL (121 EP, +46 GAP, 72% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM (145 EP, +5 GAP, 78% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (136 EP, -19 GAP, 43% Contact)
Jorge Polanco, MIN (134 EP, -34 GAP, 83% Contact)
Trevor Story, COL (231 EP, +1 GAP, 65% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (156 EP, -3 GAP, 73% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (191 EP, -63 GAP, 75% Contact)
Brandon Moss, KCR (178 EP, -5 GAP, 75% Contact)
Matt Olson, OAK (176 EP, -24 GAP, 78% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL (161 EP, +18 GAP, 77% Contact)
Tommy Pham, STL (142 EP, -56 GAP, 78% Contact)
Justin Upton, LAA (178 EP, -27 GAP, 62% Contact)
Aaron Judge, NYY (165 EP, -21 GAP, 60% Contact)
Domingo Santana, MIL (165 EP, -14 GAP, 65% Contact)
Jose Martinez, STL (164 EP, +26 GAP, 85% Contact)
Carlos Gomez, TEX (159 EP, -3 GAP, 69% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Jesse Winker, CIN (223 EP, +113 GAP, 77% Contact)
Wilson Ramos, TBR (192 EP, -52 GAP, 89% Contact)
Greg Polanco, PIT (185 EP, +136 GAP, 81% Contact)
Kris Bryant, CHC (182 EP, -22 GAP, 81% Contact)
Mookie Betts, BOS (167 EP, +9 GAP, 85% Contact)
DJ Lemahieu, COL (167 EP, +11 GAP, 79% Contact)
Christian Yelich, MIA (161 EP, +3 GAP, 83% Contact)
Manny Pina, MIL (155 EP, +98 GAP, 79% Contact)
Josh Donaldson, TOR (152 EP, +28 GAP, 82% Contact)
Andrelton Simmons, LAA (150 EP, +76 GAP, 89% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW