JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/14/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a sweet-spot eight gamer tonight! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Gary Sanchez, NYY (139 EP, -20 GAP, 79% Contact)
Travis d’Arnaud, NYM (112 EP, +27 GAP, 93% Contact)
Yonder Alonso, SEA (159 EP, +51 GAP, 75% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, CHC (137 EP, -15 GAP, 80% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, CLE (128 EP, -18 GAP, 83% Contact)
Kendrys Morales, TOR (128 EP, +3 GAP, 76% Contact)
Justin Smoak, TOR (126 EP, +16 GAP, 80% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, WAS (144 EP, +58 GAP, 75% Contact)
Brian Dozier, MIN (140 EP, +14 GAP, 78% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (176 EP, -33 GAP, 61% Contact)
Jose Ramirez, CLE (110 EP, -78 GAP, 92% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (153 EP, +7 GAP, 82% Contact)
Kyle Seager, SEA (127 EP, +14 GAP, 82% Contact)
Joey Gallo, TEX (201 EP, +22 GAP, 62% Contact)
Todd Frazier, NYY (179 EP, +46 GAP, 66% Contact)
Trea Turner, WAS (151 EP, -7 GAP, 81% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM (145 EP, +15 GAP, 77% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (134 EP, -9 GAP, 88% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (155 EP, -14 GAP, 74% Contact)
Jean Segura, SEA (104 EP, +21 GAP, 89% Contact)
Jose Reyes, NYM (106 EP, -20 GAP, 86% Contact)
Jay Bruce, CLE (154 EP, +20 GAP, 76% Contact)
Brandon Moss, KCR (153 EP, -18 GAP, 75% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (202 EP, -61 GAP, 79% Contact)
Mitch Haniger, SEA (132 EP, -32 GAP, 76% Contact)
Mike Trout, LAA (128 EP, -9 GAP, 80% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, SEA (121 EP, +28 GAP, 75% Contact)
Matt Kemp, ATL (121 EP, +12 GAP, 78% Contact)
Justin Upton, LAA (194 EP, -8 GAP, 62% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Ben Gamel, SEA (207 EP, +18 GAP, 75% Contact)
Whit Merrifield, KCR (164 EP, +74 GAP, 95% Contact)
George Springer, HOU (161 EP, +161 GAP, 83% Contact)
Marwin Gonzalez, HOU (149 EP, +86 GAP, 77% Contact)
Albert Pujols, LAA (146 EP, +146 GAP, 89% Contact)
Robinson Cano, SEA (145 EP, -21 GAP, 79% Contact)
Andrelton Simmons, LAA (134 EP, +44 GAP, 64% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
TEXAS RANGERS vs. Felix Hernandez
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. Brett Anderson
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Seth Lugo
SEATTLE MARINERZ vs. Andrew Cashner
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW