JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/13/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a strong, 12 games on the main slate! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Yadier Molina, STL (161 EP, +48 GAP, 86% Contact)
Stephen Vogt, MIL (120 EP, +32 GAP, 80% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, CHC (134 EP, -14 GAP, 81% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (127 EP, -45 GAP, 75% Contact)
Wil Myers, SDP (121 EP, +21 GAP, 76% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, STL (169 EP, +59 GAP, 68% Contact)
Daniel Descalso, ARI (208 EP, +79 GAP, 75% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (196 EP, -42 GAP, 63% Contact)
Ben Zobrist, CHC (108 EP, -8 GAP, 83% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, COL (172 EP, +18 GAP, 85% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (148 EP, +4 GAP, 83% Contact)
Kyle Seager, SEA (139 EP, +24 GAP, 80% Contact)
Joey Gallo, TEX (206 EP, +31 GAP, 63% Contact)
Trea Turner, WAS (163 EP, -10 GAP, 79% Contact)
Orlando Arcia, MIL (140 EP, +58 GAP, 75% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM (131 EP, +4 GAP, 78% Contact)
Trevor Story, COL (232 EP, -21 GAP, 60% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (202 EP, -44 GAP, 79% Contact)
Jose Martinez, STL (174 EP, +23 GAP, 82% Contact)
Matt Olson, OAK (161 Ep, -33 GAP, 78% Contact)
Mitch Haniger, SEA (127 EP, -36 GAP, 77% Contact)
Mike Trout, LAA (127 EP, -6 GAP, 77% Contact)
JD Martinez, ARI (244 EP, -39 GAP, 68% Contact)
Justin Upton, LAA (195 EP, +4 GAP, 63% Contact)
Matt Joyce, OAK (175 EP, -53 GAP, 74% Contact)
Mookie Betts, BOS (104 EP, -1 GAP, 83% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Christian Vazquez, BOS (251 EP, +111 GAP, 75% Contact)
Marwin Gonzalez, HOU (243 EP, +97 GAP, 76% Contact)
Justin Smoak, TOR (209 EP, +135 GAP, 89% Contact)
Tim Beckham, BAL (192 EP, +25 GAP, 77% Contact)
Brian Dozier, MIN (188 EP, +46 GAP, 80% Contact)
Jed Lowrie, OAK (188 EP, +98 GAP, 82% Contact)
Matt Chapman, OAK (174 EP, -57 GAP, 79% Contact)
Christian Yelich, MIA (172 EP, +62 GAP, 88% Contact)
Jean Segura, SEA (171 EP, +72 GAP, 92% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
BOSTON RED SOX vs. Jharel Cotton
TEXAS RANGERS vs. Mike Leake
SEATTLE MARINERS vs. Martin Perez
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Matt Harvey
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW