JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/12/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a tidy weekend split slate, with five games early and ten games on the main slate! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Miguel Montero, TOR (272 EP, +172 GAP, 68% Contact)
Welington Castillo, BAL (223 EP, +49 GAP, 75% Contact)
Chris Iannetta, ARI (188 EP, +53 GAP, 68% Contact)
Yadier Molina, STL (165 EP, +62 GAP, 86% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, NYY (153 EP, -22 GAP, 78% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, COL (182 EP, +33 GAP, 62% Contact)
Chris Davis, BAL (167 EP, +7 GAP, 58% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, STL (165 EP, +73 GAP, 68% Contact)
Yonder Alonso, SEA (158 EP, +56 GAP, 75% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, CLE (151 EP, -5 GAP, 85% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, CHC (144 EP, -1 GAP, 83% Contact)
Daniel Descalso, ARI (197 EP, +52 GAP, 76% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (189 EP, -35 GAP, 61% Contact)
Brandon Drury, ARI (172 EP, +17 GAP, 79% Contact)
Josh Harrison, PIT (169 EP, +23 GAP, 74% Contact)
Joey Gallo, TEX (223 EP, +44 GAP, 63% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, COL (177 EP, +23 GAP, 84% Contact)
Todd Frazier, NYY (173 EP, +45 GAP, 67% Contact)
Kyle Seager, SEA (159 EP, +44 GAP, 80% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (156 EP, +1 GAP, 86% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (135 EP, +2 GAP, 83% Contact)
Adam Rosales, ARI (223 EP, +15 GAP, 61% Contact)
Trea Turner, WAS (177 EP, -9 GAP, 80% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (148 EP, -10 GAP, 76% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM (136 EP, +16 GAP, 77% Contact)
Jorge Polanco, MIN (125 EP, -46 GAP, 80% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (128 EP, -4 GAP, 88% Contact)
JD Martinez, ARI (237 EP, -30 GAP, 69% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (198 EP, -29 GAP, 77% Contact)
Khris Davis, OAK (178 EP, -14 GAP, 63% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA (171 EP, -77 GAP, 70% Contact)
Jose Martinez, STL (165 EP, +17 GAP, 82% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL (157 EP, +12 GAP, 77% Contact)
Aaron Judge, NYY (155 EP, -16 GAP, 59% Contact)
Mike Trout, LAA (125 EP, -6 GAP, 78% Contact)
Justin Upton, LAA (184 EP, -19 GAP, 64% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Marwin Gonzalez, HOU (265 EP, +107 GAP, 75% Contact)
Stephen Vogt, MIL (223 EP, +170 GAP, 86% Contact)
Christian Yelich, MIA (199 EP, +73 GAP, 83% Contact)
Jon Schoop, BAL (182 EP, +121 GAP, 78% Contact)
Brad Miller, TAM (178 EP, +121 GAP, 79% Contact)
Harrison Bader, STL (168 EP, +66 GAP, 85% Contact)
Corey Seager, LAD (145 EP, +106 GAP, 84% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. Travis Wood
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Robert Gsellman
CLEVELAND INDIANS vs. Matt Boyd
TEXAS RANGERS vs. Marco Gonzales
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW