JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 9/1/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a HEFTY 13- game slate tonight! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Welington Castillo, BAL (183 EP, +5 GAP, 77% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, NYY (162 EP, -30 GAP, 73% Contact)
Manny Pina, MIL (155 EP, +33 GAP, 65% Contact)
CJ Cron, LAA (169 EP, +2 GAP, 76% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (168 EP, -55 GAP, 75% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (145 EP, -7 GAP, 82% Contact)
Mitch Moreland, BOS (139 EP, -39 GAP, 82% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, COL (223 EP, +65 GAP, 64% Contact)
Lucas Duda, TAM (177 EP, +37 GAP, 66% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, STL (165 EP, +58 GAP, 73% Contact)
Hanley Ramirez, BOS (148 EP, +8 GAP, 73% Contact)
Chris Davis, BAL (147 EP, +15 GAP, 62% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, WAS (135 EP, +34 GAP, 80% Contact)
Brandon Drury, ARI (212 EP, +32 GAP, 72% Contact)
Joe Panik, SFG (114 EP, +45 GAP, 97% Contact)
Brian Dozier, MIN (121 EP, -19 GAP, 81% Contact)
Eugenio Suarez, CIN (175 EP, -15 GAP, 79% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, COL (146 EP, +6 GAP, 85% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (138 EP, -16 GAP, 91% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, KCR (134 EP, +35 GAP, 85% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, TEX (127 EP, -12 GAP, 81% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (130 EP, -7 GAP, 81% Contact)
Adam Rosales, ARI (156 EP, +4 GAP, 59% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (117 EP, +52 GAP, 78% Contact)
Freddy Galvis, PHI (105 EP, +58 GAP, 78% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (196 EP, -11 GAP, 82% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, SEA (160 EP, -61 GAP, 77% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL (137 EP, -28 GAP, 82% Contact)
Carlos Gonzalez, COL (134 EP, +42 GAP, 76% Contact)
Mike Trout, LAA (128 EP, -32 GAP, 77% Contact)
Aaron Hicks, NYY (127 EP, +44 GAP, 76% Contact)
Max Kepler, MIN (126 EP, -19 GAP, 80% Contact)
Khris Davis, OAK (231 EP, +34 GAP, 64% Contact)
Justin Upton, LAA (215 EP, -53 GAP, 61% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA (208 EP, -96 GAP, 72% Contact)
JD Martinez, ARI (190 EP, +1 GAP, 68% Contact)
Matt Joyce, OAK (169 EP, -59 GAP, 73% Contact)
Eddie Rosario, MIN (113 EP, -40 GAP, 82% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Craig Gentry, BAL (262 EP, +128 GAP, 100% Contact)
Logan Morrison, TAM (253 EP, -82 GAP, 81% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, DET (223 EP, +35 GAP, 94% Contact)
Ryder Jones, SFG (223 EP, +97 GAP, 83% Contact)
Byron Buxton, MIN (223 EP, +28 GAP, 81% Contact)
Domingo Santana, MIL (207 EP, +60 GAP, 75% Contact)
Scooter Gennett, CIN (184 EP, +26 GAP, 83% Contact)
Ian Desmond, COL (149 EP, +149 GAP, 91% Contact)
Trey Mancini, BAL (147 EP, +52 GAP, 83% Contact)
Greg Bird, NYY (170 EP, +12 GAP, 78% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs. Joe Biagini
COLORADO ROCKIES vs. Taijuan Walker
TEXAS RANGERS vs. Tyler Skaggs
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. Jason Hammel
MIAMI MARLINS vs. Nick Pivetta
BOSTON RED SOX vs. Sonny Gray
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW