JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/9/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a tidy split slate, with five early games and 10 main slate contests, so let’s get right to it! (EARLY SLATE will be first, the MAIN slate later)
TOP STACKS (in no order):
NEW YORK YANKEES at Nick Tepesch
The Yankees have been off on the road, but the matchup in a hitter’s park against Nick Tepesch is too good to ignore – despite their struggles, the lack of obvious alternatives on this slate, along with their built in popularity, will make this a popular stack.
Aaron Judge, OF (135 EP, +9 GAP, 52% Contact)
Clint Frazier, OF (127 EP, +10 GAP, 68% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, C (119 EP, -28 GAP, 71% Contact)
Chase Headley, 3B (108 EP, -2 GAP, 75% Contact)
HOUSTON ASTROS at Miguel Gonzalez
Miguel Gonzalez, once again, grades out as the worst SP on the slate, with a 5.89 SIERA, 1.0% net K-BB rate, and 13.7% soft contact rate with a 6.8% swinging strike rate. The Astros, despite cooling off, are still a dangerous enough bunch to take advantage at a hitter’s park here.
Alex Bregman, 3B (144 EP, -25 GAP, 91% Contact)
Jose Altuve, 2B (130 EP, +0 GAP, 89% Contact)
Marwin Gonzalez, SS (101 EP, -35 GAP, 76% Contact)
Brian McCann, C (94 EP, -1 GAP, 84% Contact)
Yuli Gurriel and Carlos Beltran both have high contact rate (90% and 80%, respectively)
MILWAUKEE BREWERS at Bartolo Colon
Colon is a magician, we know this, and Target is better for RHH power, but this is too good to ignore. Colon still carries a 5.25 SIERA over his last four starts, a 42.9% FB rate, 5.8% swinging strike rate, 94% contact rate in zone and 42.4% hard contact rate. Yowza.
Manny Pina, C (147 EP, +71 GAP, 79% Contact)
Ryan Braun, OF (136 EP, +25 GAP, 81% Contact)
Eric Thames, 1B (127 EP, +30 GAP, 59% Contact)
Travis Shaw, 3B (122 EP, -23 GAP, 66% Contact)
Keon Broxton, OF (120 EP, +25 GAP, 56% Contact)
SAN DIEGO PADRES at Asher Wojciechowski
I like Asher Wojciechowski, with a 3.12 SIERA, 33% K rate and 23% soft contact rate. But wait, why target him with a stack? It is a hunch, but a 55-60+% fly ball rate guy in Great American Ballpark against the second highest FB rate team does not seem like a formula for continued success. This is a risk stack as I think folks will look to Asher as a low cost gem, and could still pile up the Ks in the 5-6 IP he will log at most. Besides, the Padres have it going right now with hard contact and are ninth in wRC+ against RHP since July 1.
Jabari Blash, OF (239 EP, +91 GAP, 68% Contact)
Dusty Coleman, OF (197 EP, -77 GAP, 58% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, 2B (177 EP, +92 GAP, 78% Contact)
Hunter Renfroe, OF (146 EP, -4 GAP, 72% Contact
Austin Hedges, C (133 EP, -54 GAP, 67% Contact)
Manuel Margot, OF (132 EP, +34 GAP, 78% Contact)
Yangervis Solarte, 3B (126 EP, +47 GAP, 93% Contact)
Wil Myers, 1B (124 EP, -4 GAP, 67% Contact)
Jose Pirela, 2B (97 EP, -42 GAP, 82% Contact)
BALTIMORE ORIOLES at Troy Scribner (EARLY)
Orioles are improving overall against RHP as the season has worn on, and the same is true even on the road. Now they play against RHP Troy Scribner, who has posted meh performances his last couple of times out, with a net zero K-BB% rate and 7.06 SIERA because of that. In an extremely limited sample, he has done worse against RHH which fits nicely into the Orioles top three lineup situation, typically.
Seth Smith, OF (156 EP, +11 GAP, 82% Contact)
Chris Davis, 1B (130 EP, +12 GAP, 59% Contact)
Manny Machado, 3B (120 EP, +30 GAP, 89% Contact)
Mark Trumbo, 1B (108 EP, +12 GAP, 62% Contact)
Jon Schoop, 2B (108 EP, -29 GAP, 79% Contact)
Adam Jones, OF (107 EP, -22 GAP, 85% Contact)
OAKLAND A’S vs. Yovani Gallardo (EARLY)
We just saw what happened when an extreme fly ball pitcher wanders into the midst of this A’s power lineup. Gallardo has been bad overall but worse even against RHH, which again calls the biggest bats of the A’s into play here.
Khris Davis, OF (215 EP, +17 GAP, 64% Contact)
Matt Chapman, 3B (170 EP, -43 GAP, 73% Contact)
Marcus Semien, SS (145 EP, +67 GAP, 74% Contact)
Bruce Maxwell, C (119 EP, +68 GAP, 73% Contact)
Jed Lowrie, 2B (116 EP, +57 GAP, 86% Contact)
Rajai Davis, OF (110 EP, -23 GAP, 79% Contact)
Ryon Healy and Matt Joyce are below the 100 threshold for L30 but both carry 80% contact rates and Healy has a 180 EP, -47 GAP, 82% Contact over L7.
OTHER TOP HITTERS:
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (216 EP, -90 GAP, 72% Contact)
JD Martinez, OF, ARI (213 EP, -21 GAP, 62% Contact)
Mitch Moreland, 1B, BOS (195 EP, +90 GAP, 69% Contact)
Zack Cozart, SS, CIN (190 EP, +19 GAP, 84% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B (189 EP, +49 GAP, 88% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, 3B, DET (160 EP, +52 GAP, 75% Contact)
Lucas Duda, 1B, TAM (159 EP, -24 GAP, 71% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS (159 EP, +26 GAP, 70% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, 1B/2B, STL (148 EP, +16 GAP, 79% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (129 EP, +69 GAP, 82% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, 1B, LAA (213 EP, +48 GAP, 76% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (184 EP, +16 GAP, 82% Contact)
Carlos Santana, 1B, CLE (139 EP, -5 GAP, 76% Contact)
Joey Gallo, IF, TEX (224 EP, -84 GAP, 61% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (157 EP, +4 GAP, 71% Contact)
Mike Zunino, C, SEA (152 EP, -29 GAP, 57% Contact)
Wilmer Flores, IF, NYM (158 EP, -8 GAP, 80% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS, NYM (137 EP, _65 GAP, 81% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, NYM (132 EP, +22 GAP, 82% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS STARS:
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, CIN (207 EP, +91 GAP, 75% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, SS, MIN (194 EP, +194 GAP, 85% Contact)
Oz Albies, IF, ATL (190 EP, +116 GAP, 83% Contact)
Robby Grossman, OF, MIN (182 EP, +85 GAP, 86% Contact)
Maikel Franco, 3B, PHI (174 EP, +87 GAP, 80% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL (145 EP, +29 GAP, 86% Contact)
Danny Valencia, IF, SEA (277 EP, -39 GAP, 79% Contact)
Elvis Andres, SS, TEX (210 EP, -48 GAP, 79% Contact)
Welington Castillo, C, BAL (178 EP, -4 GAP, 91% Contact)
Mike Trout, OF, LAA (176 EP, -95 GAP, 88% Contact)
Buster Posey, C/1B, SF (171 EP, +113 GAP, 90% Contact)
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL (165 EP, +56 GAP, 76% Contact)
Kris Bryant, 3B, CHC (151 EP, +98 GAP, 86% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW