JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/8/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a MASSIVE 15-game, top flight pitching, slate going tonight so let’s get right to it!
TOP STACKS (in no order):
HOUSTON ASTROS at Derek Holland
Derek Holland is terrible and may be getting worse, with only a 5.3% swinging strike rate and -6% K-BB rate over his last 99 batters faced. He has a staggering 6.99 SIERA over that stretch as well. Now, he only has to face the Astros, who may be getting George Springer back and even if he is not, they are a force in split, with a 112 wRC+ and .189 ISo over their last 507 PA.
Tyler White, 1B (141 EP, -56 GAP, 69% Contact)
Alex Bregman, 3B (126 EP, -36 GAP, 90% Contact)
Jose Altuve, 2B (119 EP, -4 GAP, 88% Contact)
Marwin Gonzalez, SS (110 EP, -41 GAP, 77% Contact)
Brian McCann, Yuli Gurriel and George Springer all carry contact rates over 84%.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. Vance Worley
Vance Worley can only dodge his final destination for so long. He has a solid SIERA over 4.12 and a kwERA of 4.47 this season, but that comes married to a 4.8% swinging strike rate. He gives up 93% contat in zone and 89% overall, 41% hard contact but emerges unscathed? Over his last 30 days, his contact rates has risen and swinging strikes have dropped, to 93.1/91.1 and 4.0% respectively. The Nationals have plenty of bats to punish Worley and a 113 wRC+ with .206 ISO in split here.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B (155 EP, +22 GAP, 70% Contact)
Bryce Harper, OF (154 EP, -48 GAP, 74% Contact)
Brian Goodwin, OF (153 EP, -7 GAP, 70% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, 2B (150 EP, -15 GAP, 83% Contact)
Anthony Rendon, 3B (115 EP, -40 GAP, 85% Contact)
Matt Wieters, C (113 EP, +12 GAP, 74% Contact)
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. Matt Garza
Garza’s magic tricks are about to come to a close. Over the last 30 days, Matt has a 6.40 SIERA and 94% contact rate in the strike zone. He also has given up 57% fly balls. Still, his HR/FB rate is a piddly 4%. Be there when the curtain falls on Garza.
Brian Dozier, 2B (148 EP, -10 GAP, 71% Contact)
Eddie Rosario, OF (138 EP, +6 GAP, 77% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, SS (129 EP, +85 GAP, 77% Contact)
Robby Grossman, OF, MIN (L7: 224 EP, +108 GAP, 83% Contact)
Joe Mauer has an 84% Contact rate and Max Kepler 76%.
NEW YORK METS vs. Andrew Cashner
Cashner has almost cemented his rep this season as being The Pitcher That You Should Not Stack Against Because He Has Sold His Soul…and other thoughts and notions. Narratives do not drive me, but stats do, and Cashner is good at one thing only, getting ground balls. The Mets are the fly ball hittingest team in the league, with a 42% rate for the season. Something has to give here, and the Mets have the 117 wRC+ since June 1 vs. RHP/H and all Cashner has is a 5.7% swinging strike rate, 92% contact rate, 14.7% K rate and 4.84 SIERA. I will take the Mets.
Jay Bruce, OF (179 EP ,+34 GAP, 71% Contact)
Wilmer Flores, IF (158 EP, -8 GAP, 80% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS (138 EP, +73 GAP, 79% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF (132 EP, +36 GAP, 82% Contact)
Travis d’Arnaud, C (102 EP, +65 GAP, 84% Contact)
Jose Reyes, SS/3B (101 EP, +31 GAP, 86% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, OF (L7: 199 EP, -22 GAP, 63% Contact)
OTHER TOP HITTERS:
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (209 EP, +33 GAP, 73% Contact)
JD Martinez, OF, ARI (208 EP, -34 GAP, 64% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, 1B, LAA (207 EP, +59 GAP, 77% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (204 EP, -90 GAP, 73% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS, LAD (194 EP, +31 GAP, 77% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, LAD (190 EP, +32 GAP, 79% Contact)
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (189 EP, +11 GAP, 63% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (188 EP, +22 GAP, 83% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (176 EP, +68 GAP, 90% Contact)
Mitch Moreland, 1B, BOS (174 EP, +61 GAP, 72% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (169 EP, +18 GAP, 72% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, 2B, SDP (168 EP, +72 GAP, 76% Contact)
Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK (168 EP, -59 GAP, 73% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS STARS:
Derek Dietrich, IF, MIA (286 EP, +99 GAP, 76% Contact)
Carlos Santana, 1B, CLE (243 EP, +24 GAP, 76% Contact)
Josh Donaldson, 3B, TOR (241 EP, -26 GAP, 76% Contact)
Danny Valencia, 1B/3B, SEA (224 EP, +7 GAP, 84% Contact)
Martin Maldonado, C, LAA (224 EP, +140 GAP, 75% Contact)
Jose Bautista, OF, TOR (174 EP, +119 GAP, 87% Contact)
Ozhaino Albies, IF, ATL (206 EP, +127 GAP, 82% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW