JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/7/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a sweet spot seven-game slate going tonight so let’s get right to it!
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
Not a great night for stacks, so I am skipping them almost entirely tonight. There is one you can turn to, if you have to have to have to stack a team.
CHICAGO CUBS at Matt Moore
Moore scores poorly in every advanced metric and against both side of the plate, from SIERA to xwOBA, so I feel alright in looking at Cubs RHH in San Francisco today.
Willson Contreras, C (144 EP, -47 GAP, 82% Contact)
Javier Baez, 2B/SS (143 EP, -43 GAP, 62% Contact)
Albert Almora, OF (130 EP, +51 GAP, 86% Contact)
Kris Bryant, 3B (88 EP, -22 GAP, 82% Contact)
OTHER TOP HITTERS:
Carlos Asuaje, 2B, SDP (175 EP, +88 GAP, 76% Contact) – Adleman has big difficulties with LHH, with a .401 xwOBA vs LHH since 6/1.
Seth Smith, OF, BAL (175 EP, +13 GAP, 82% Contact) – A similar story for JC Ramirez against LHH, also over .400 xwOBA since 6/1.
Chris Davis, 1B, BAL (139 EP, +10 GAP, 59% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, 1B/3B, LAA (206 EP, +48 GAP, 77% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS (156 EP, +26 GAP, 70% Contact)
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (136 EP, +35 GAP, 82% Contact) – SDP RHP Chacin is another LHH target SP, with high xwOBA in split.
Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN (154 EP, -16 GAP, 70% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, 1B/2B, STL (129 EP, +25 GAP, 80% Contact) – Ian Kennedy with terrible LHH splits, too!
Brandon Moss, OF, KCR (144 EP, -14 GAP, 68% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS STARS:
Brandon Belt, 1B, SF (348 EP, +74 GAP, 79% Contact)
Robby Grossman, OF, MIN (286 EP, +141 GAP, 80% Contact)
Jose Martinez, OF, STL (224 EP, +50 GAP, 83% Contact)
Edurado Escobar, SS, MIN (161 EP, +161 GAP, 84% Contact)
Starling Marte, OF, PIT (149 EP, +63 GAP, 96% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW