JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/5/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
We have a solid 12-game slate going tonight and a three-game early slate so let’s get right to it!
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
LOS ANGELES DODGERS at Seth Lugo (EARLY)
Dodgers are excellent in split and Lugo has a 40.7% hard contact rate over his last 30 days (115 batters faced, 450 pitches).
Chase Utley, 1B/2B (239 EP, +114 GAP, 80% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS (191 EP, +38 GAP, 75% Contact)
Logan Forsythe, IF (160 EP, +107 GAP, 63% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (160 EP, +31 GAP, 79% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B (160 EP, +77 GAP, 86% Contact)
Chris Taylor, 2B/OF (136 EP, -42 GAP, 73% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, C (129 EP, -7 GAP, 68% Contact)
BOSTON RED SOX vs. James Shields
RedSox let down the masses last night against Carlos Rodon, but I expect they will not stay away too long as James Shields has completely lost it as a starter. Shields, over his L30 (102 PF, 392 pitches) has a 5.76 SIERA, 2.21 HR/ 9 IP, 50% first strike rate, 8.7% swinging strike rate, 36.4% hard contact and 10.8% walk rate.
Mitch Moreland, 1B (156 EP, +62 GAP, 73% Contact)
Jackie Bradley, OF (110 EP, +54 GAP, 66% Contact)
Mookie Betts, OF (94 EP, +37 GAP, 83% Contact)
Eduardo Nunez, IF (87 EP, -31 GAP, 89% Contact)
DETROIT TIGERS at Wade Miley
Miley has not gotten any better throughout the season, working a 12.1% walk rate with a 5.45 SIERA and 1.71 HR/9 IP rate over his L30. The Tigers are very good in split, ranking third against LHP/A over their last 537 PAs, with a .211 ISO and 124 wRC+.
Nick Castellanos, 3B (160 EP, +55 GAP, 74% Contact)
Victor Martinez, 1B (126 EP, +53 GAP, 82% Contact)
Justin Upton, OF (113 EP, -69 GAP, 72% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, 2B (105 EP, +44 GAP, 89% Contact)
HOUSTON ASTROS vs. Marco Estrada
It will be between Boston and Houston as the most popular stack, which is amazing on a Coors Slate, but the Astros have summarily decimated everyone in every split this season and it has not waned significantly without George Springer and Carlos Correa injured. Estrada seems like he has been doing well, but the metrics tell a mixed story. He does carry an 11.5% swinging strike rate over his L30, but also has a 5.82 SIERA and 14.2% walk rate. He gets remarkable soft contact and low hard contact, but also gives up 58% fly balls and 1.44 HR/9 IP. The split is too much to ignore and with Estrada walking a tight rope, the Astros are the type of team to knock him into the net.
Alex Bregman, 3B (133 EP, -40 GAP, 88% Contact)
Carlos Beltran, OF (120 EP, +21 GAP, 79% Contact)
Jose Altuve, 2B (114 EP, -5 GAP, 91% Contact)
Josh Reddick, Brian McCann and Yuli Gurriel are all under average for EP, but they carry very high contact rates, McCann is over 100 EP last seven days with 40+% FB rate, and Gurriel tops them all with 91% Contact.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs. Drew Verhagen
The O’s are looking so much better in this split lately, more like last season. After a slow start, the Orioles are fourth against RHP/H with a .211 ISO, 118 wRC+ and .355 wOBA as a team. Verhagen profiles as a hard thrower, but with low K rates and high GB rates.
Seth Smith, OF (179 EP, +13 GAP, 83% Contact)
Chris Davis, 1B (145 EP, +24 GAP, 58% Contact)
Manny Machado, 3B (121 EP, +23 GAP, 88% Contact)
Jon Schoop, 2B (116 EP, -14 GAP, 79% Contact)
Mark Trumbo, OF (111 EP, -29 GAP, 65% Contact)
Adam Jones is under 100 in EP, but has a strong 84% contact rate.
OTHER TOP HITTERS:
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (201 EP, -105 GAP, 75% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, 1B, LAA (189 EP, +31 GAP, 77% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL (181 EP, +33 GAP, 83% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX (158 EP, +14 GAP, 81% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, 2B, SDP (150 EP, +49 GAP, 75% Contact)
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, TEX (138 EP, +81 GAP, 80% Contact)
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (213 EP, +32 GAP, 71% Contact)
Mike Zunino, C, SEA (180 EP, -6 GAP, 59% Contact)
Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK (160 EP, -46 GAP, 70% Contact)
Brandon Moss, OF, KCR (157 EP, -13 GAP, 67% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, CLE (138 EP, -3 GAP, 75% Contact)
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (118 EP, +43 GAP, 82% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS STARS:
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (281 EP, +135 GAP, 76% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, SS, MIN (238 EP, +177 GAP, 82% Contact)
Kendrys Morales, 1B, TOR (182 EP, +80 GAP, 77% Contact)
Freddy Galvis, SS, PHI (155 EP, +155 GAP, 94% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW