JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/3/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a solid 10-game slate going tonight so let’s get right to it!
Alright, 15 runs, that is more like it. Tonight we will….wait, no Coors on the slate? Rats, guess I will have to work on other stacks. Stacks like…
LOS ANGELES DODGERS at Sean Newcomb
The stacks today seem to form a theme: Just because a stack went el busto in a good spot does not mean you turn a blind eye to it again. Cornerback mentality here. Newcomb has given up more offense at home and the Dodgers are still a top five team in split, with plenty of firepower/patience to take advantage of Newcomb’s occasional wildness. Sure, the GOAT Chase Utley will not be in the lineup, but here you will see that they still have plenty of sticks to make the stack work.
Corey Seager, SS (180 EO, +29 GAP, 70% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B (172 EP, +68 GAP, 86% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (167 EP, +31 GAP, 81% Contact)
Logan Forsythe, IF (153 EP, +89 GAP, 65% Contact)
Kiki Hernandez, IF/OF (150 EP, +45 GAP, 71% Contact)
Chris Taylor, IF (131 EP, -34 GAP, 72% Contact)
HOUSTON ASTROS vs. Blake Snell
Houston got dropped by Austin Pruitt last night, but as you will see if you check out the LAST SEVEN DAYS chart, plenty of Astros bats are hot and carrying tons o’ gap. Snell is a good talent, but still carries a near 5.00 SIERA, fueled by a double-digit walk rate.
Alex Bregman, 3B (134 EP, -44 GAP, 88% Contact)
Carlos Beltran, OF (131 EP, +33 GAP, 77% Contact)
Evan Gattis, C (130 EP, -38 GAP, 80% Contact)
Jose Altuve, 2B (121 EP, -4 GAP, 91% Contact)
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. AJ Griffin
AJ Griffin is back and I am compelled to point out that he is terrible, terrible against LHH. The Twins happen to have a number of competent LHH sticks, even if their wRC+ is only 20th in split here. Griffin also gives up a lot of home runs so stacking is certainly applicable here.
Brian Dozier, 2B (143 EP, +4 GAP, 66% Contact)
Eddie Rosario, OF (128 EP, +2 GAP, 81% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, SS (107 EP, +33 GAP, 75% Contact)
Max Kepler, Robby Grossman, Joe Mauer and Zach Granite are well below power averages, but all have 75% or better contact, with Granite leading the way at 89%.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs. Yovani Gallardo
People may be interested in diving off the Royals bandwagon, forgetting that their improved hitting has come at home, largely, and they are back in Kauffman Stadium tonight against one of the highest SIERAs on the slate. Gallardo is carrying a 5.19 SIERA over his L30 (77 batters faced) and 5.10 for the season.
Brandon Moss, OF (143 EP, +9 GAP, 69% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, 3B (139 EP, +6 GAP, 84% Contact)
Alcides Escobar, SS (117 EP, +70 GAP, 85% Contact)
Melky Cabrera, OF (117 EP, +17 GAP, 86% Contact)
Whit Merrifield, 2B (114 EP, -5 GAP, 86% Contact)
Sal Perez, C (114 EP, -8 GAP, 78% Contact)
Lo Cain and Eric Hosmer both carry high contact rates, but below average power right now.
OTHER TOP HITTERS:
Luis Valbuena, 1B, LAA (218 EP, +36 GAP, 78% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (154 EP, +9 GAP, 81% Contact)
Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA (139 EP, +28 GAP, 86% Contact)
Zack Cozart, SS, CIN (137 EP, -18 GAP, 90% Contact)
Victor Martinez, 1B, DET (136 EP, +54 GAP, 83% Contact)
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (123 EP, +44 GAP, 83% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (195 EP, +55 GAP, 72% Contact)
Josh Harrison, IF, PIT (116 EP, +53 GAP, 86% Contact)
ATLANTA CATCHERS – Tyler Flowers (211 EP, +31 GAP, 64% Contact), Kurt Suzuki (264 EP, +67 GAP, 86% Contact)
Mike Napoli, 1B, TEX (176 EP, -4 GAP, 61% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS STARS:
Jordy Mercer, SS, PIT (331 EP, +241 GAP, 82% Contact)
Jed Lowrie, 2B, OAK (180 EP, +70 GAP, 96% Contact)
Lorenzo Cain, OF, KCR (180 EP, +40 GAP, 85% Contact)
Rajai Davis, OF, OAK (152 EP, -17 GAP, 82% Contact)
Kaleb Cowart, 3B, LAA (141 EP, -17 GAP, 79% Contact)
Buster Posey, C, SFG (124 EP, +92 GAP, 87% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW