JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/31/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a SPLIT SLATE today, with four going early and six late. TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS, SNEAKY STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Welington Castillo, BAL (164 EP, -25 GAP, 78% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, NYY (153 EP, -25 GAP, 75% Contact)
Manny Pina, MIL (155 EP, +33 GAP, 65% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (142 EP, +10 GAP, 80% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, CHC (131 EP, -25 GAP, 81% Contact)
Jesus Aguilar, MIL (206 EP, +9 GAP, 65% Contact)
Hanley Ramriez, BOS (154 EP, +9 GAP, 71% Contact)
Joe Panik, SFG (119 EP, +47 GAP, 93% Contact)
Eduardo Nunez, BOS (101 EP, -20 Gap, 84% Contact)
Ozzie Albies, ATL (113 EP, +16 GAP, 83% Contact)
Josh Donaldson, TOR (152 EP, -67 GAP, 78% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (140 EP, -26 GAP, 90% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (200 EP, -25 GAP, 63% Contact)
Tim Beckham, BAL (123 EP, -20 GAP, 81% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (187 EP, -29 GAP, 82% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (152 EP, -4 GAP, 76% Contact)
Nick Markakis, ATL (139 EP, +47 GAP, 85% Contact)
Aaron Hicks, NYY (133 EP, +45 GAP, 76% Contact)
Keon Broxton, MIL (196 EP, +24 GAP, 61% Contact)
Kyle Schwarber, CHC (166 EP, -18 GAP, 58% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA (201 EP, -106 GAP, 72% Contact) – 76% contact,211 EP L7 days, too
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Craig Gentry, BAL (262 EP, +128 GAP, 100% Contact)
Hernan Perez, MIL (198 EP, +88 GAP, 77% Contact)
Brandon Crawford, SFG (192 EP, +44 GAP, 80% Contact)
Domingo Santana, MIL (185 EP, +15 GAP, 76% Contact)
Matt Adams, ATL (168 EP, -25 GAP, 82% Contact)
Matt Kemp, ATL (157 EP, -1 GAP, 83% Contact)
Adam Jones, BAL (152 EP, +9 GAP, 88% Contact)
Mookie Betts, BOS (140 EP, _61 GAP, 89% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. Miguel Gonzalez
HOUSTON ASTROS vs. Nick Martinez
BOSTON RED SOX vs. CC Sabathia
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs. Marco Estrada
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW