JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/30/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a SPLIT SLATE today, with five going early and nine late. TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS, SNEAKY STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Welington Castillo, BAL (158 EP, -18 GAP, 78% Contact)
Kurt Suzuki, ATL (155 EP, -3 GAP, 83% Contact)
Yadier Molina, STL (135 EP, +2 GAP, 84% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, NYY (163 EP, -35 GAP, 72% Contact)
Alex Avila, CHC (159 EP, +28 GAP, 58% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (155 EP, -41 GAP, 77% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (139 EP, +3 GAP, 82% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (130 EP, +18 GAP, 78% Contact)
Miguel Cabrera, DET (128 EP, +49 GAP, 75% Contact)
Dominic Smith, NYM (128 EP, +42 GAP, 77% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, COL (215 EP, +63 GAP, 63% Contact)
CJ Cron, LAA (175 EP, +12 GAP, 77% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, STL (165 EP, +41 GAP, 71% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, DET (143 EP, +47 GAP, 81% Contact)
Kolten Wong, STL (133 EP, +19 GAP, 81% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, WAS (132 EP, +39 GAP, 82% Contact)
Kaleb Cowart, LAA (126 EP, +26 GAP, 75% Contact)
Eugenio Suarez, CIN (183 EP, -18 GAP, 77% Contact)
Josh Donaldson, TOR (152 EP, -68 GAP, 78% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, DET (144 EP, +41 GAP, 78% Contact)
Nick Markakis, ATL (144 EP, +62 GAP, 85% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, COL (137 EP, -9 GAP, 88% Contact)
Kyle Seager, SEA (136 EP, +36 GAP, 82% (Contact)
Mike Moustakas, KCR (134 EP, +34 GAP, 86% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (132 EP, -42 GAP, 91% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (131 EP, -7 GAP, 82% Contact)
Tim Beckham, BAL (127 EP, -21 GAP, 81% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (214 EP, -30 GAP, 81% Contact)
Matt Joyce, OAK (184 EP, -29 GAP, 75% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (160 EP, -5 GAP, 78% Contact)
Aaron Hicks, NYY (140 EP, +45 GAP, 76% Contact)
Lorenzo Cain, KCR (129 EP, +51 GAP, 85% Contact)
Khris Davis, OAK (220 EP, +28 GAP, 65% Contact)
Justin Upton, DET (212 EP, -62 GAP, 63% Contact)
JD Martinez, ARI (193 EP, +1 GAP, 69% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Yandy Diaz, 3B, CLE (273 EP, +20 GAP, 83% Contact)
Craig Gentry, OF, BAL (246 EP, +189 GAP, 100% Contact)
Jorge Bonifacio, OF, KCR (223 EP, +138 GAP, 76% Contact)
Andrew Romine, OF, DET (223 EP, +108 GAP, 85% Contact)
Byron Buxton, OF, MIN (210 EP, -1 GAP, 84% Contact)
Matt Olson, 1B/OF, OAK (203 EP, +!9 GAP, 75% Contact)
Travis d’Arnaud, C, NYM (192 EP, +152 GAP, 94% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS (192 EP, +4 GAP, 80% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC (176 EP, -61 GAP, 77% Contact)
Scott Schebler, OF, CIN (173 EP, -109 GAP, 78% Contact)
TOP STACKS (in no particular order):
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs. Ariel Miranda
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. Derek Holland
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Ivan Nova
CINCINNATI REDS vs. Rafael Montero
SNEAKY STACKS (Less than 5.0 Vegas implied team total):
KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs. Jake Odorizzi
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! –