JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/29/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
We have a MASSIVE 15-game slate tonight. TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS, SNEAKY STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Gary Sanchez, NYY (165 EP, -49 GAP, 72% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, LAD (160 EP, +2 GAP, 65% Contact)
Alex Avila, CHC (154 EP, +27 GAP, 60% Contact)
Manny Pina, MIL (152 EP, +42 GAP, 67% Contact)
Yadier Molina, STL (133 EP, +2 GAP, 83% Contact)
Martin Maldonado, LAA (115 EP, +69 GAP, 72% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, COL (223 EP, +62 GAP, 64% Contact)
Lucas Duda, TAM (189 EP, +17 GAP, 66% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, STL (162 EP, +37 GAP, 72% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (159 EP, +9 GAP, 82% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (152 EP, -47 GAP, 76% Contact)
Miguel Cabrera, DET (130 EP, +56 GAP, 76% Contact) – He’s NOT broken!
Justin Smoak, TOR (125 EP, -20 GAP, 75% Contact)
Albert Pujols, LAA (123 EP, +44 GAP, 85% Contact)
Chase Utley, LAD (188 EP, +120 GAP, 80% Contact)
Brandon Drury, ARI (185 EP, +27 GAP, 72% Contact)
Eugenio Suarez, CIN (201 EP, +9 GAP, 77% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, LAA (166 EP, -2 GAP, 70% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (147 EP, +43 GAP, 94% Contact)
Nolan Areando, COL (137 EP, +3 GAP, 88% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, DET (137 EP, +40 GAP, 78% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, KCR (134 EP, +34 GAP, 85% Contact)
Dusty Coleman, SDP (214 EP, +44 GAP, 47% Contact) – 47%! Super low cost HR punt bat at SS.
Tim Beckham, BAL (129 EP, -21 GAP, 80% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (125 EP, -8 GAP, 83% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (117 EP, +46 GAP, 78% Contact)
Zack Cozart, CIN (124 EP, +33 GAP, 87% Contact)
Khris Davis, OAK (227 EP, +38 GAP, 66% Contact)
Keon Broxton, MIL (217 EP, +29 GAP, 58% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (214 EP, -30 GAP, 81% Contact)
Justin Upton, DET (212 EP, -66 GAP, 62% Contact)
JD Martinez, ARI (201 EP, +2 GAP, 68% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA (196 EP, -118 GAP, 72% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, LAD (195 EP, -17 GAP, 69% Contact)
Matt Joyce, OAK (183 EP, -23 GAP, 74% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (168 EP, -5 GAP, 78% Contact)
Kyle Schwarber, CHC (155 EP, +4 GAP, 56% Contact)
Jose Pirela, SDP (135 EP, +8 GAP, 79% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL (130 EP, -16 GAP, 81% Contact)
Jose Bautista, TOR (127 EP, +33 GAP, 75% Contact)
Carlos Gonzalez, COL (121 EP, +33 GAP, 75% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Pat Valaika, SS, COL (251 EP, +140 GAP, 77% Contact)
Brandon Crawford, SS, SFG (208 EP, -49 GAP, 80% Contact)
Jake Lamb, 3B, ARI (204 EP, +155 GAP, 81% Contact)
Steve Pearce, OF, TOR (192 EP, +93 GAP, 92% Contact)
Byron Buxton, OF, MIN (171 EP, -40 GAP, 84% Contact)
Marcus Semien, SS, OAK (161 EP, +42 GAP, 84% Contact)
Scott Schebler, OF, CIN (161 EP, -29 GAP, 79% Contact)
Scooter Gennett, 2B, CIN (157 EP, -1 GAP, 83% Contact)
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD (150 EP, +48 GAP, 81% Contact)
Eduardo Nunez, IF, BOS (140 EP, -25 GAP, 86% Contact)
COLORADO ROCKIES vs. Michael Fulmer
CINCINNATI REDS vs. Chris Flexen
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs. Erasmo Ramirez
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Chad Kuhl
SNEAKY STACKS (Less than 5.0 Vegas implied team total):
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Zach Godley
ST LOUS CARDINALS vs. Matt Garza
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW