JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/27/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
We have a five-game early slate followed by nine-game main slate tonight. TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS, SNEAKY STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Alex Avila, CHC (165 EP, +30 GAP, 61% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, COL (237 EP, +67 GAP, 64% Contact)
Lucas Duda, TAM (183 EP, +5 GAP, 80% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (153 EP, +3 GAP, 73% Contact)
Yonder Alonso, SEA (142 EP, +46 GAP, 78% Contact)
Miguel Cabrera, DET (134 EP, +47 GAP, 76% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (131 EP, +24 GAP, 78% Contact)
Ian Happ, CHC (168 EP, -46 GPA, 60% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, SDP (153 EP, +79 GAP, 74% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, DET (133 EP, #1 GAP, 81% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, WAS (130 EP, +41 GAP, 81% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, LAA (174 EP, -5 GAP, 70% Contact)
Josh Donaldson, TOR (167 EP, -58 GAP, 77% Contact)
Kyle Seager, SEA (149 EP, +33 GAP, 82% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, DET (143 EP, +40 GAP, 77% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, COL (139 EP, +1 GAP, 88% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, KCR (134 EP, +21 GAP, 84% Contact)
Tim Beckham, BAL (126 EP, -28 GAP, 78% Contact)
Jordy Mercer, PIT (102 EP, +25 GAP, 78% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (228 EP, -23 GAP, 80% Contact)
Khris Davis, OAK (227 EP, +29 GAP, 66% Contact)
Justin Upton, DET (208 EP, -74 GAP, 61% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, SEA (196 EP, -50 GAP, 74% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA (191 EP, -114 GAP, 74% Contact)
Brandon Moss, KCR (157 EP, -61 GAP, 60% Contact)
Kyle Schwarber, CHC (156 EP, +5 GAP, 55% Contact)
Kevin Keirmaier, TAM (149 EP, -25 GAP, 75% Contact)
Nick Markakis, ATL (147 EP, +54 GAP, 86% Contact)
Lorenzo Cain, KCR (141 EP, +64 GAP, 83% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL (137 EP, -15 GAP, 81% Contact)
Carlos Gonzalez, COL (121 EP, +33 GAP, 75% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Pat Valaika, SS, COL (286 EP, +163 GAP, 75% Contact)
Andrew Romine, OF, DET (241 EP, +144 GAP, 87% Contact)
Jorge Bonifacio, OF, KCR (223 EP, +223 GAP, 77% Contact)
Corey Dickerson, OF, TAM (223 EP, -18 GAP, 86% Contact)
Steve Pearce, OF, TOR (199 EP, +81 GAP, 91% Contact)
Darwin Barney, 2B, TOR (196 EP, +196 GAP, 77% Contact)
Jose Iglesias, SS, DET (179 EP, -35 GAP, 85% Contact)
Jose Pirela, OF, SDP (140 EP, +108 GAP, 91% Contact)
Chad Pinder, IF, OAK (140 EP, -7 GAP, 88% Contact)
Josh Bell, 1B, PIT (133 EP, +25 GAP, 88% Contact)
COLORADO ROCKIES vs. Jordan Zimmermann
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs. Marco Gonzales
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Trevor Williams
KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs. Austin Pruitt
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW