JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/26/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
We have a five-game early slate followed by nine-game main slate tonight. TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS, SNEAKY STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Yasmani Grandal, LAD (171 EP, +13 GAP, 69% Contact)
Kurt Suzuki, ATL (167 EP, -18 GAP, 82% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, NYY (160 EP, -71 GAP, 73% Contact)
Yadier Molina, STL (134 EP, +5 GAP, 84% Contact)
Lucas Duda, TAM (174 EP, +16 GAP, 65% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (152 EP, -46 GAP, 76% Contact)
Justin Smoak, TOR (138 EP, -18 GAP, 75% Contact)
Chase Utley, LAD (231 EP, +137 GAP, 78% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, DET (139 EP, +48 GAP, 83% Contact)
Jose Altuve, HOU (124 EP, +31 GAP, 86% Contact)
Joe Panik, SFG (108 EP, +64 GAP, 93% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, SDP (138 EP, +60 GAP, 74% Contact)
Yangervis Solarte, SDP (110 EP, +20 GAP, 91% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, LAA (196 EP, -12 GAP, 71% Contact)
Josh Donaldson, TOR (170 EP, -58 GAP, 76% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (169 EP, +73 GAP, 95% Contact)
Derek Dietrich, MIA (153 EP, +26 GAP, 73% Contact)
Kyle Seager, SEA (141 EP, +27 GAP, 85% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, TEX (129 EP, -23 GAP, 79% Contact)
Nolan Areando, COL (147 EP, -9 GAP, 87% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (114 EP, +55 GAP, 78% Contact)
Dusty Coleman, SDP (241 EP, +38 GAP, 47% Contact)
Alex Bregman, HOU (108 EP, -35 GAP, 88% Contact)
Cprey Seager, LAD (104 EP, +24 GAP, 84% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (116 EP, -2 GAP, 84% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (235 EP, -5 GAP, 79% Contact)
Khris Davis, OAK (227 EP, +29 GAP, 66% Contact)
Justin Upton, DET (207 EP, -75 GAP, 61% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA (203 EP, -98 GAP, 73% Contact)
JD Martinez, ARI (199 EP, +14 GAP, 78% Contact)
Kyle Schwarber, CHI (196 EP, -13 GAP, 57% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (177 EP, -4 GAP, 82% Contact)
Aaron Hicks, NYY (145 EP, +39 GAP, 77% Contact)
Jose Pirela, SDP (129 EP, -1 GAP, 79% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Jose Iglesias, SS, DET (192 EP, +5 GAP, 94% Contact)
Didi Gregorius, SS, NYY (191 EP, +61 GAP, 92% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (188 EP, +109 GAP, 82% Contact)
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD (183 EP, +114 GAP, 81% Contact)
Corey Dickerson, OF, TAM (176 EP, -41 GAP, 89% Contact)
Chase Headley, 3B, NYY (173 EP, +82 GAP, 90% Contact)
Stephen Vogt, C, MIL (168 EP, -25 GAP, 82% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, CLE (145 EP, +76 GAP, 84% Contact)
Paul DeJong, 2B/SS, STL (144 EP, +53 GAP, 79% Contact)
TORONTO BLUE JAYS vs. Dillon Gee (EARLY)
NEW YORK YANKEES vs. Yovani Gallardo (EARLY)
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Ben Lively
- LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Blake Snell
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Zach Davies
SNEAKY STACKS (Under 5.0 implied Vegas run total):
SAN DIEGO PADRES vs. Odrisamer Despaigne
HOUSTON ASTROS vs. Tyler Skaggs
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW