JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/25/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
We have a full on 15-gamer tonight. TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS, SNEAKY STACKS ahead – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Yasmani Grandal, LAD (167 EP, +13 GAP, 70% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, NYY (160 EP, -83 GAP, 73% Contact)
Yadier Molina, STL (124 EP, -3 GAP, 84% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (162 EP, +20 GAP, 84% Contact)
Mitch Moreland, BOS (151 EP, -22 GAP, 80% Contact)
Chris Davis, BAL (148 EP, +50 GAP, 62% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (145 EP, -41 GAP, 75% Contact)
Chase Utley, LAD (209 EP, +121 GAP, 77% Contact)
Brandon Drury, ARI (151 EP, +10 GAP, 69% Contact)
Chris Taylor, LAD (136 EP, -20 GAP, 77% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, DET (130 EP, +39 GAP, 84% Contact)
Rougned Odor, TEX (125 EP, -6 GAP, 77% Contact)
Josh Harrison, PIT (110 EP, +12 GAP, 81% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, LAA (218 EP, -5 GAP, 73% Contact)
Eugenio Suarez, CIN (195 EP, +12 GAP, 74% Contact)
Josh Donaldson, TOR (184 EP, -61 GAP, 73% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (167 EP, +72 GAP, 94% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, KCR (142 EP, +34 GAP, 87% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, DET (139 EP, +39 GAP, 76% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, TEX (134 EP, -16 GAP, 81% Contact)
Zack Cozart, CIN (140 EP, +25 GAP, 89% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (118 EP, +59 GAP, 77% Contact)
Corey Seager, LAD (110 EP, +28 GAP, 82% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (229 EP, +$ GAP, 79% Contact)
Khris Davis, OAK (212 EP, +28 GAP, 65% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, SEA (204 EP, -55 GAP, 68% Contact)
Justin Upton, DET (200 EP, -77 GAP, 62% Contact)
JD Martinez, ARI (199 EP, +15 GAP, 68% Contact)
Kyle Schwarber, CHI (199 EP, -4 GAP, 55% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, LAD (192 EP, -30 GAP, 67% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA (180 EP, -91 GAP, 71% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (173 EP, -17 GAP, 81% Contact)
Matt Joyce, OAK (169 EP, -39 GAP, 74% Contact)
Aaron Hicks, NYY (142 EP, +38 GAP, 76% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Jorge Bonifacio, OF, KCR (223 EP, +160 GAP, 83% Contact)
Manny Machado, 3B, BAL (213 EP, -8 GAP, 93% Contact)
Chase Headley, 3B, NYY (198 EP, +73 GAP, 86% Contact)
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD (193 EP, +94 GAP, 77% Contact)
Didi Gregorius, SS, NYY (167 EP, =59 GAP, 88% Contact)
Marcell Ozuna, OF, MIA (140 EP, -2 GAP, 87% Contact)
Mike Zunino, C, SEA (140 EP, -18 GAP, 75% Contact)
Josh Bell, 1B, PIT (133 EP, +54 GAP, 96% Contact)
- LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Jake Odorizzi
OAKLAND A’s vs. Nick Martinez
BOSTON RED SOX vs. Jeremy Hellickson
MIAMI MARLINS vs. Travis Wood
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS vs. Ty Blach
SNEAKY STACKS (Under 5.0 implied Vegas run total):
DETROIT TIGERS vs. Miguel Gonzalez
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Chase Anderson
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72).