JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/24/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
We have a THURSDAY split slate today, with five games early and six late. TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Cameron Rupp, PHI (181 EP, -73 GAP, 66% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, LAD (171 EP, +13 GAP, 69% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, NYY (158 EP, -80 GAP, 73% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (230 EP, +15 GAP, 81% Contact)
Lucas Duda, TAM (173 EP, +15 GAP, 67% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (167 EP, +31 GAP, 84% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (156 EP, -22 GAP, 76% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, CHC (126 EP, +2 GAP, 80% Contact)
Albert Pujols, LAA (124 EP, +44 GAP, 85% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, SDP (154 EP, +90 GAP, 73% Contact)
Howie Kendrick, WAS (129 EP, -32 GPA, 78% Contact)
Rougned Odor, TEX (128 EP, +2 GAP, 79% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (185 EP, +89 GAP, 94% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (184 EP, +1 GAP, 79% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, COL (171 EP, -3 GAP, 82% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, KCR (139 EP, +21 GAP, 86% Contact)
Jake Lamb, ARI (137 EP, +7 GAP, 77% Contact)
Gerardo Parra, COL (136 EP, +24 GAP, 82% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, TEX (128 EP, -19 GAP, 83% Contact)
Anthony Rendon, WAS (122 EP, +22 GAP, 79% Contact)
Zack Cozart, CIN (160 EP, +19 GAP, 87% Contact)
Elvis Andrus, TEX (101 EP, -3 GAP, 84% Contact)
Corey Seager, LAD (106 EP, +27 GAP, 82% Contact)
JD Martinez, ARI (196 EP, -1 GAP, 69% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA 9193 EP, -97 GAP, 72% Contact)
Kyle Schwarber, CHC (176 EP, -22 GAP, 56% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, LAD (173 EP, -38 GAP, 68% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, NYM (154 EP, -19 GAP, 73% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL (133 EP, -1 GAP, 84% Contact)
Aaron Hicks, NYY (122 EP, +13 GAP, 76% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Kevin Kiermaier, OF, TAM (209 EP, -60 GAP, 81% Contact)
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL (192 EP, +83 GAP, 84% Contact)
Ryan Goins, 2B/SS, TOR (174 EP, +100 GAP, 75% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, SS, CLE (137 EP, +39 GAP, 83% Contact)
Chase Headley, 3B, NYY (238 EP, +90 GAP, 89% Contact)
Didi Gregorius, SS, NYY (140 EP, +27 GAP, 88% Contact)
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs. Vance Worley
DETROIT TIGERS vs. Jaime Garcia
NEW YORK YANKEES vs. Michael Fulmer
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. Derek Holland
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Chad Kuhl
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Sal Romano
SNEAKY STACK (Under 5.0 implied Vegas run total):
COLORADO ROCKIES vs. Jakob Junis
ST LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Luis Perdomo
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW