JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/23/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
We have a strong 13-game main slate tonight! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Kurt Suzuki, ATL (211 EP, +8 GAP, 84% Contact)
Cameron Rupp, PHI (181 EP, -73 GAP, 66% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, PHI (230 EP, +46 GAP, 80% Contact)
Joey Votto, CIN (160 EP, +36 GAP, 83% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, CLE (159 EP, +20 GAP, 77% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (156 EP, -25 GAP, 76% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, ATL (130 EP, +22 GAP, 81% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, SDP (150 EP, +89 GAP, 75% Contact)
Rougned Odor, TEX (148 EP, -4 GAP, 79% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, WAS (142 EP, +32 GAP, 83% Contact)
Daniel Descalso, ARI (149 EP, +70 GAP, 68% Contact)
Eugenio Suarez, CIN (186 EP, +8 GAP, 75% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (179 EP, _87 GAP, 93% Contact)
Kyle Seager, SEA (148 EP, +21 GAP, 84% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, LAA (229 EP, -4 GAP, 72% Contact)
Zack Cozart, CIN (158 EP, +14 GAP, 87% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, MIN (127 EP, +53 GAP, 76% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, STL (190 EP, +7 GAP, 77% Contact)
Eddie Rosario, MIN (139 EP, -29 GAP, 83% Contact)
Nick Markakis, ATL (138 EP, +43 GAP, 87% Contact)
Aaron Hicks, NYY (134 EP, +17 GAP, 76% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, SEA (206 EP, -38 GAP, 69% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA (193 EP, -97 GAP, 72% Contact)
Kyle Schwarber, CHC (175 EP, -28 GAP, 56% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET (244 EP, +47 GAP, 75% Contact)
Kole Calhoun, OF, LAA (223 EP, -82 GAP, 79% Contact)
Yonder Alonso, 1B, SEA (208 EP, +60 GAP, 76% Contact)
Chase Headley, 3B, NYY (208 EP, +82 GAP, 88% Contact)
Tommy Joseph, 1B, PHI (206 EP, 3 GAP, 78% Contact)
Adam Lind, 1B, WAS (204 EP, +151 GAP, 75% Contact)
Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA (188 EP, +53 GAP, 95% Contact)
Nick Delmonico, OF, CHW (180 EP, -50 GAP, 90% Contact)
Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, CHC (168 EP, +63 GAP, 90% Contact)
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Asher Wojciechowski
NEW YORK YANKEES vs. Jordan Zimmermann
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs. Justin Nicolino
CINCINNATI REDS vs. Mike Montgomery
SNEAKY STACK (Under 5.0 implied Vegas run total):
- LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Jhoulys Chacin
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW