JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/22/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
We have a mammoth 14-game main slate tonight! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Tyler Flowers, C, ATL (156 EP, -6 GAP, 73% Contact)
Mike Zunino, C, SEA (166 EP, -40 GAP, 58% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, CLE (163 EP, -30 GAP, 73% Contact)
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (153 EP, +28 GAP, 82% Contact)
Joey Gallo, 1B/3B, TEX (249 EP, -70 GAP, 58% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, 1B/3B, LAA (247 EP, -3 GAP, 71% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC (111 EP, -4 GAP, 81% Contact)
Chris Davis, 1B, BAL (146 EP, +70 GAP, 63% Contact)
Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA (123 EP, +50 GAP, 84% Contact)
Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE (170 EP, +12 GAP, 69% Contact)
Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN (164 EP, -8 GAP, 75% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, 2B, SDP (150 EP, +90 GAP, 75% Contact)
Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL (125 EP, +18 GAP, 84% Contact)
Wilmer Flores, 1B/3B, NYM (164 EP, +6 GAP, 78% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (155 EP, +23 GAP, 82% Contact)
Josh Donaldson, 3B, TOR (153 EP, -66 GAP, 76% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KCR (146 EP, +4 GAP, 86% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, 3B, DET (138 EP, +73 GAP, 75% Contact)
Kris Bryant, 3B, CHC (121 EP, -4 GAP, 81% Contact)
Manny Machado, 3B, BAL (112 EP, -28 GAP, 92% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, SS/3B, MIN (125 EP, +52 GAP, 78% Contact)
Dansby Swanson, SS, ATL (108 EP, +16 GAP, 84% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, SS, CLE (104 EP, +8 GAP, 83% Contact)
JD Martinez, OF, ARI (204 EP, +5 GAP, 68% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (202 EP, +26 GAP, 74% Contact)
Kyle Schwarber, OF, CHC (186 EP, -22 GAP, 56% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, NYM (168 EP, +0 GAP, +73% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX (159 EP, +5 GAP, 78% Contact)
Jose Martinez, 1B/OF, STL (138 EP, -32 GAP, 82% Contact)
Nick Delmonico, OF, CHW (130 EP, -16 GAP, 81% Contact)
Mike Trout, OF, LAA (127 EP, -19 GAP, 76% Contact)
Eddie Rosario, OF, MIN (134 EP, -31 GAP, 83% Contact)
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, TEX (115 EP, +62 GAP, 73% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Yonder Alonso, 1B, SEA (241 EP, +72GAP, 78% Contact)
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, CIN (206 EP, +157 EP, 76% Contact)
Jay Bruce, OF, CLE (201 EP, -36 GAP, 76% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX (198 EP, +56 GAP, 80% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL (186 EP, +28 GAP, 84% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, 2B, WAS (174 EP, +129 GAP, 78% Contact)
Kole Calhoun, OF, LAA (173 EP, -48 GAP, 83% Contact)
Max Kepler, OF, MIN (144 EP, -14 GAP, 81% Contact)
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs. Paul Blackburn
MINNESOTA TWINS vs. Luis Giolito
LOS ANGELES ANGELS vs. Tyson Ross
CHICAGO CUBS vs. Homer Bailey
SNEAKY STACK (Under 5.0 implied Vegas run total):
ATLANTA BRAVES vs. Marco Gonzales
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW