JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/2/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a solid 12-game slate going tonight so let’s get right to it!
Let’s try this again: Two SPs we do not mind targeting right now (Chris Flexen, Tyler Chatwood) in Coors Field. Here now the expected bats:
Jay Bruce, OF, NYM (212 EP, +47 GAP, 71% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, COL, (176 EP, +30 GAP, 80% Contact)
Nolan Areando, 3B, COL (161 EP, -30 GAP, 82% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS, NYM (141 EP, +90 GAP, 82% Contact)
Trevor Story, SS, COL (131 EP, -41 GAP, 56% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, NYM (123 EP, +46 GAP, 84% Contact)
HOUSTON ASTROS vs. Austin Pruitt
Astros are great in this split and get the new blood Austin Pruitt, who gave up three home runs in 21 batter in Yankee Stadium, at home in Houston.
Carlos Beltran, OF, HOU (133 EP, +25 GAP, 77% Contact)
Evan Gattis, C, HOU (133 EP, -38 GAP, 80% Contact)
Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU (127 EP, -47 GAP, 87% Contact)
Josh Reddick, OF, HOU (115 EP, +13 GAP, 77% Contact)
Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU (113 EP, -13 GAP, 90% Contact)
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vat Julio Teheran
Targeting specifically a LHH bat stack against Teheran, who still carries a .415 wOBA and 6.58 xFIP in split here.
Corey Seager, SS (180 EP, +12 GAP, 71% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B (166 EP, +66 GAP, 86% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (157 EP, +37 GAP, 77% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, C (125 EP, -33 GAP, 75% Contact)
Logan Forsythe, IF (144 EP, +77 GAP, 64% Contact)
Chris Taylor, 2B (128 EP, -33 GAP, 72% Contact)
Chase Utley, 2B (183 EP, +86 GAP, 84% Contact)
WASHINGTON NATIONALS at Vance Worley
Nationals pound RHP, even on the road (.209 ISO) and get the hittable Worley, who has given up 54% hard contact in his limited stint since coming back and only a 5.3% swinging strike rate.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B (156 EP, +37 GAP, 73% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, 2B (151 EP, +12 GAP, 85% Contact)
Bryce Harper, OF (145 EP, -60 GAP, 75% Contact)
Brian Goodwin, OF (142 EP, -29 GAP, 69% Contact)
Anthony Rendon, 3B (117 EP, -46 GAP, 84% Contact)
OTHER TOP HITTERS:
Luis Valbuena, 1B, LAA (240 EP, +55 GAP, 78% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (198 EP, +57 GAP, 73% Contact)
Mike Napoli, 1B, TEX (190 EP, -11 GAP, 61% Contact)
Ryan Braun, OF, MIL (186 EP, +66 GAP, 83% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (172 EP, -78 GAP, 74% Contact)
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (154 EP, -12 GAP, 64% Contact)
Travis Shaw, 3B, MIL (154 EP, -47 GAP, 66% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS STARS:
Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT (224 EP, -116 GAP, 81% Contact)
Rajai Davis, OF, OAK (182 EP, -15 GAP, 80% Contact)
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (168 EP, +107 GAP, 95% Contact)
Manny Pina, C, MIL (152 EP, +107 GAP, 93% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW