JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/21/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
We have a let’s get it going seven game main slate tonight! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Kurt Suzuki, C, ATL (230 EP, +35 GAP, 83% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, LAD (213 EP, +66 GAP, 80% Contact)
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (202 EP, +28 GAP, 65% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (195 EP, +87 GAP, 92% Contact)
Wilmer Flores, 1B/3B, NYM (180 EP, +8 GAP, 77% Contact)
Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, SFG (177 EP, +7 GAP, 83% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, CLE (173 EP, +15 GAP, 77% Contact)
CJ Cron, 1B, LAA (172 EP, +37 GAP, 78% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI (171 EP, -30 GAP, 70% Contact)
Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE (170 EP, +12 GAP, 69% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, NYM (168 EP, +0 GAP, 74% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (164 EP, +33 GAP, 80% Contact)
Daniel Descalso, 2B/OF, ARI (163 EP, +84 GAP, 67% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, OF, LAA (158 EP, =47 GAP, 68% Contact)
Dansby Swanson, SS, ATL 9148 EP, +56 GAP, 80% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL (136 EP, +24 GAP, 82% Contact)
Nick Markakis, OF, ATL (136 EP, +54 GAP, 88% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS, LAD (130 EP, +30 GAP, 78% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Yonder Alonso, 1B, SEA (277 EP, +153 GAP, 82% Contact)
Kole Calhoun, OF, LAA (204 EP, -51 GAP, 87% Contact)
Manny Machado, 3B, BAL (194 EP, -8 GAP, 96% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, C, LAD (161 EP, -56 GAP, 80% Contact)
Buster Posey, C/1B, SFG (158 EP, +92 GAP, 86% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX (152 EP, +65 GAP, 83% Contact)
Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA (147 EP, +62 GAP, 93% Contact)
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs. Chris Smith
Chris Davis, 1B (140 EP, +64 GAP, 62% Contact)
Seth Smith, OF (124 EP, +1 GAP, 87% Contact)
Manny Machado, 3B (117 EP, -23 GAP, 92% Contact)
Tim Beckham, SS (115 EP, -37 GAP, 77% Contact)
Mark Trumbo, OF (115 EP, -7 GAP, 70% Contact)
Jon Schoop, 2B (103 EP, -11 GAP, 76% Contact)
Welington Castillo, C (102 EP, -19 GAP, 75% Contact)
Adam Jones, OF (102 EP, -4 GAP, 85% Contact)
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Gerrit Cole
Chase Utley, 1B/2B (265 EP, +149 GAP, 79% Contact) – 38 AB L30
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (223 EP, +144 GAP, 67% Contact) -12 AB L7
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (213 EP, +66 GAP, 80% Contact) – Q- injured ankle
Justin Turner, 3B (195 EP, +87 GAP, 92% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, OF (158 EP, -47 GAP, 68% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS (130 EP, +30 GAP, 78% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, C (124 EP, -3 GAP, 73% Contact)
Chris Taylor, 2B/OF (124 EP, -49 GAP, 76% Contact)
Joc Pederson, OF (119 EP, +20 GAP, 81% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW