JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/18/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
We have a ready for the weekend 14-game slate tonight, so let’s get right to it! TOP POWER BATS, followed by stars from the LAST SEVEN DAYS and then TOP STACKS, including a SNEAKY STACK and SUPER DUPER SNEAKY STACK today – let’s get right to it!
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Manny Pina, C, MIL (169 EP, +61 GAP, 75% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, 1B/3B, LAA (256 EP, +38 GAP, 67% Contact)
Joey Gallo, 1B/3B, TEX (243 EP, -85 GAP, 60% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, LAD (204 EP, +66 GAP, 82% Contact)
Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, SFG (172 EP, +10 GAP, 76% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, CLE (172 EP, +14 GAP, 76% Contact)
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (151 EP, +41 GAP, 84% Contact)
Carlos Santana, 1B, CLE (150 EP, -2 GAP, 79% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL (129 EP, +15 GAP, 80% Contact)
Wilmer Flores, 1B/3B, NYM (188 EP, +13 GAP, 79% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, 1B, COL (183 EP, +17 GAP, 65% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX (142 EP, +26 GAP, 78% Contact)
Asdurbal Cabrera, 2B/SS, NYM (125 EP, +57 GAP, 80% Contact)
Daniel Descalso, 2B/OF, ARI (170 EP, +79 GAP, 67% Contact)
Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL (146 EP, +67 GAP, 85% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (189 EP, +71 GAP, 90% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL (163 EP, -29 GAP, 81% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KCR (149 EP, +25 GAP, 88% Contact)
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, CIN (179 EP, +1 GAP, 73% Contact)
Zack Cozart, SS, CIN (187 EP, -8 GAP, 89% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS, LAD (163 EP, +34 GAP, 78% Contact)
Dansby Swanson, SS, ATL (131 EP, +50 GAP, 83% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, SS/3B, MIN (140 EP, +79 GAP, 78% Contact)
Jay Bruce, OF, CLE (165 EP, +31 GAP, 76% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (154 EP, +14 GAP, 78% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL (149 EP, -7 GAP, 84% Contact)
Nike Markakis, OF, ATL (137 EP, +45 GAP, 87% Contact)
JD Martinez, OF, ARI (210 EP, +3 GAP, 66% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (203 EP, -87 GAP, 73% Contact)
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, TEX (111 EP, +55 GAP, 76% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Adam Lind, 1B/OF, WAS (306 EP, +249 GAP, 79% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, PHI (267 EP, +123 GAP, 88% Contact)
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET (248 EP, +185 GAP, 83% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (246 EP, +146 GAP, 79% Contact)
Nick Delmonico, OF, CHW (192 EP, +14 GAP, 89% Contact)
Victor Martinez, 1B, DET (190 EP, +116 GAP, 88% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX (180 EP, -7 GAP, 88% Contact)
Ryder Jones, 1B/3B, SFG (177 EP, +29 GAP, 76% Contact)
Eric Hosmer, 1B, KCR (171 EP, +21 GAP, 90% Contact)
Derek Dietrich, 3B, MIA (152 EP, +107 GAP, 88% Contact)
COLORADO ROCKIES vs. Matt Garza
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Jordan Zimmermann
HOUSTON ASTROS vs. Sean Manaea
CLEVELAND INDIANS vs. Ian Kennedy
SUPER SNEAKY STACK:
ATLANTA BRAVES vs. Sal Romano
SUPER DUPER SNEAKY STACK:
KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs. Corey Kluber
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, GAP as well as GAP w/High Contact. Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW